Ittlinger Sandra, Lang Steffen, Schubert Antonia, Raab Markus
Department of Performance Psychology, German Sport University Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
TUM School of Medicine and Health, Chair of Performance Analysis and Sports Informatics, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
Sci Rep. 2025 Sep 11;15(1):32408. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-17770-z.
In professional beach volleyball, the belief in "never give up" is deeply ingrained, but its strategic implications remain underexplored. This study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining sport psychology and sport informatics, to assess the perception of set-winning probabilities (SWPs) in beach volleyball, as this is a crucial factor for strategic in-game decisions and improved performance. We examined cognitive biases and adaptive strategies influencing SWP estimations in scenarios of substantial trailing or leading. Forty-three members of the German beach volleyball national team estimated SWPs for 60 scores, responded to questions on game tactics, and completed questionnaires measuring optimism, pessimism, confirmation bias, and the sunk cost fallacy. Empirical SWPs were calculated from a dataset of 6,571 matches. Results revealed that participants significantly overestimated SWPs when trailing and underestimated them when leading. Optimism and confirmation bias significantly shaped these estimations. Notably, confirmation bias had a dual role: in trailing scenarios, it amplified overestimation, causing players to underestimate their disadvantage, while in leading scenarios, it improved accuracy by focusing on the likelihood of victory. Players were more likely to recall situations reinforcing the belief that "We (can still) win". These findings highlight the psychological and strategic complexities of SWP estimations in competitive beach volleyball.
在职业沙滩排球运动中，“永不放弃”的信念深入人心，但其战略意义仍未得到充分探索。本研究采用混合方法，将运动心理学和运动信息学相结合，以评估沙滩排球中对局点获胜概率（SWP）的认知，因为这是比赛中战略决策和提高成绩的关键因素。我们研究了在大幅落后或领先情况下影响SWP估计的认知偏差和适应性策略。德国沙滩排球国家队的43名队员对60个比分的局点获胜概率进行了估计，回答了有关比赛战术的问题，并完成了测量乐观主义、悲观主义、证实性偏差和沉没成本谬误的问卷。实证局点获胜概率是根据一个包含6571场比赛的数据集计算得出的。结果显示，参与者在落后时显著高估局点获胜概率，而在领先时则低估。乐观主义和证实性偏差显著影响了这些估计。值得注意的是，证实性偏差具有双重作用：在落后情况下，它加剧了高估，导致球员低估自己的劣势，而在领先情况下，它通过关注获胜的可能性提高了准确性。球员更有可能回忆起强化“我们（仍）能赢”这一信念的情况。这些发现凸显了竞技沙滩排球中局点获胜概率估计的心理和战略复杂性。
