Yan Feng, Pang Jiao, Liu Yue, An Xiaoming, Wang Xingyu, Liu Xin, Shen Lin, Chen Yaheng
School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, 100083, China.
School of Land and Resources, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding, 071001, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 29;14(1):22547. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-73868-w.
The ecological compensation mechanism is a tool for managing regional development and promoting the green economy. This paper proposes a revised model for carbon emissions and absorption based on IPCC, then analyses the spatial and temporal variations of carbon emissions, absorption, and deficit in 31 provinces of China from 2001 to 2019. A model was developed to redistribute carbon deficits and compensate for ecological imbalances, with the aim of eliminating background differences between regions. The concept of ecological compensation sensitivity was proposed, and a redundancy analysis (RDA) was conducted to detect possible influencing factors. Results indicate that: (1) The carbon deficits were relatively substantial in the centre and developed coastal regions, which were the subject regions of China's ecological compensation. Meanwhile, the northwest and southwest regions were the object regions of ecological compensation, and the compensated object regions tended to extend towards the southeast. The majority of compensated subject areas are generally less sensitive than compensated object regions. (2) The graph of carbon deficit volume over time shows that China's two carbon targets are closely aligned. The distribution of China's ecological compensation amounts follows the pattern of provincial economic development levels, with higher compensation amounts concentrated in the central and coastal regions. There is a positive correlation between GDP, year, and population size with carbon emission and carbon deficit. Additionally, there is a positive correlation between year, region, and carbon absorption. (3) This compensation model can strongly incentivise the compensation subject area to proactively adjust its economic development model to cope with the significant compensation pressure. Additionally, it can fully encourage the compensation recipient area to continue adhering to the green economic development model. The conclusions of the study hold significant reference value for promoting the development of a green, low-carbon economy.
生态补偿机制是一种管理区域发展和促进绿色经济的工具。本文基于政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）提出了一种修订后的碳排放与吸收模型，进而分析了2001年至2019年中国31个省份碳排放、吸收及赤字的时空变化。构建了一个模型来重新分配碳赤字并补偿生态失衡，目的是消除区域间的背景差异。提出了生态补偿敏感性概念，并进行了冗余分析（RDA）以检测可能的影响因素。结果表明：（1）中部和沿海发达地区的碳赤字相对较大，这些地区是中国生态补偿的主体区域。与此同时，西北和西南地区是生态补偿的客体区域，且被补偿客体区域有向东南延伸的趋势。大多数被补偿主体区域的敏感性普遍低于被补偿客体区域。（2）碳赤字量随时间变化的图表表明中国的两个碳目标紧密相关。中国生态补偿金额的分布遵循省级经济发展水平模式，较高的补偿金额集中在中部和沿海地区。国内生产总值（GDP）、年份和人口规模与碳排放及碳赤字之间存在正相关关系。此外，年份、区域与碳吸收之间存在正相关关系。（3）这种补偿模型能够有力地激励补偿主体区域积极调整其经济发展模式以应对巨大的补偿压力。此外，它能充分鼓励补偿接受区域继续坚持绿色经济发展模式。该研究结论对推动绿色低碳经济发展具有重要参考价值。
