Warner K E
JAMA. 1986 Feb 28;255(8):1028-32.
Cigarette excise tax changes ultimately influence the health of smokers and potential smokers. An 8-cent decrease in the federal tax is estimated to induce up to 1 million young persons, ages 12 to 25 years, to smoke, when without the tax decrease they would not. Hundreds of thousands of Americans older than 25 years would also start or continue smoking as a result of the tax decrease. Conversely, an 8- to 16-cent tax increase would encourage from 1 to 2 million young persons and 800,000 to 1.5 million adults to quit smoking or not to start. Thus, a tax increase could prevent hundreds of thousands of premature smoking-related deaths, while a tax decrease would contribute to the disease burden of tobacco. Intentionally or inadvertently, the federal cigarette excise tax is a powerful tool of public health policy.
香烟消费税的变化最终会影响吸烟者和潜在吸烟者的健康。据估计，联邦税每降低8美分，就会诱使多达100万年龄在12至25岁的年轻人开始吸烟，而如果不减税，他们原本不会吸烟。减税还会导致数十万25岁以上的美国人开始吸烟或继续吸烟。相反，每提高8至16美分的税收，将促使100万至200万年轻人以及80万至150万成年人戒烟或不再开始吸烟。因此，提高税收可以预防数十万与吸烟相关的过早死亡，而降低税收则会加重烟草造成的疾病负担。有意或无意地，联邦香烟消费税都是公共卫生政策的有力工具。
