Yin Min-Yue, Xi Li-Ting, Liu Lu, Zhu Jin-Zhou, Qian Li-Juan, Xu Chun-Fang
Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou 215006, Jiangsu Province, China.
World J Clin Cases. 2022 May 16;10(14):4404-4413. doi: 10.12998/wjcc.v10.i14.4404.
Due to dietary patterns, the aging population, and other high-risk factors, the occurrence of pancreatic cancer (PC) has been rapidly increasing in China.
To present the epidemiological trends of PC in China over the past decade and the estimated trend in 2025 and to compare the international differences in PC morbidity and mortality.
This study used a series of nationally representative data from the National Central Cancer Registry of China (NCCR), the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation databases. Age-standardized data of the PC incidence and mortality from 2006 to 2015 in China were extracted from the NCCR database. Linear regression models were used to estimate the incidence and mortality rates of PC in 2025.
The age-standardized rates of PC in China increased from 3.65 per 100000 in 2006 to 4.31 per 100000 in 2015 and were estimated to reach up to 5.52 per 100000 in 2025. The mortality went from 3.35 per 100000 in 2006 to 3.78 per 100000 in 2015, estimated to reach up to 4.6 per 100000 in 2025. The number of new cases and deaths was low before 45 years and the peak age of onset was 85-89 years. The incidence and mortality rates in men were higher than those in women regardless of the region in China. In addition, the incidence and mortality rates in China were higher than the average level around the world. Likewise, disability-adjusted life years attributed to PC in China were 197.22 years per 100000, above the average level around the world.
This study presented an increasing trend of PC in China and differences in morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life years between Chinese and global populations. Efforts need to be made to decrease the PC incidence and improve patient outcomes.
由于饮食习惯、人口老龄化及其他高危因素，中国胰腺癌（PC）的发病率一直在迅速上升。
呈现中国过去十年胰腺癌的流行病学趋势以及2025年的预估趋势，并比较胰腺癌发病率和死亡率的国际差异。
本研究使用了来自中国国家癌症中心（NCCR）、国际癌症研究机构以及健康指标与评估研究所数据库的一系列具有全国代表性的数据。从NCCR数据库中提取了2006年至2015年中国胰腺癌发病率和死亡率的年龄标准化数据。使用线性回归模型预估2025年胰腺癌的发病率和死亡率。
中国胰腺癌的年龄标准化发病率从2006年的每10万人3.65例增至2015年的每10万人4.31例，预计2025年将达到每10万人5.52例。死亡率从2006年的每10万人3.35例升至2015年的每10万人3.78例，预计2025年将达到每10万人4.6例。45岁之前新发病例和死亡人数较少，发病高峰年龄为85 - 89岁。在中国，无论哪个地区，男性的发病率和死亡率均高于女性。此外，中国的发病率和死亡率高于世界平均水平。同样，中国胰腺癌所致伤残调整生命年为每10万人197.22年，高于世界平均水平。
本研究呈现了中国胰腺癌发病率上升的趋势以及中国与全球人群在发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年方面的差异。需要努力降低胰腺癌发病率并改善患者预后。
