Zhao Yangyu, Yang Xinyue, Du Yanyan, Chen Lei, Dong Jiayang, Hu Tenglong, Sun Na, Sun Qiang, Liang Wenyan, Wei Xiqing, Zhang Zhiqiang
Department of Cardiology, Clinical Medical College, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining Medical University, Jining, Shandong, 272000, China.
Shandong Provincial Key Medical and Health Discipline of Cardiology (Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University), Jining, Shandong, 272000, China.
BMC Cardiovasc Disord. 2025 May 26;25(1):401. doi: 10.1186/s12872-025-04724-6.
This study aims to analyze the global trends and projected burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) attributable to particulate matter (PM) pollution. The objectives are to assess spatiotemporal trends, socio-demographic variations, and gender differences and to forecast the future burden using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.
We utilized data from GBD 2021 to evaluate age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CVD attributable to PM from 1990 to 2021. Age-period-cohort models and Joinpoint regression analysis were employed to evaluate temporal trends. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, which incorporates prior information to improve prediction stability, was selected to project the future burden up to 2045 due to its robustness in handling long-term epidemiological trends.
Between 1990 and 2021, global number of deaths and DALYs for CVD attributed to PM increased by 91.68% and 78.89%, respectively. Despite these increases, ASMR and age-standardized DALYs rates declined significantly, especially among females. The burden disproportionately affected low- and middle- Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, with significant gender and age differences. The elderly population and regions with lower SDI will bear the greater burden. Predictions indicate that by 2045, the number of deaths and DALYs will increase by approximately three times, with females experiencing a more pronounced rise.
The study emphasizes that despite improvements in age-standardized rates, the global burden of CVD attributable to PM has significantly increased. Due to population aging, uneven regional progress, and persistent exposure to PM, targeted intervention measures and enhanced air quality regulations are needed to reduce future health impacts. These findings provide critical insights for global health policies and strategies.
本研究旨在分析因颗粒物（PM）污染导致的心血管疾病（CVD）的全球趋势和预计负担。目标是评估时空趋势、社会人口统计学差异和性别差异，并利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021研究的数据预测未来负担。
我们利用GBD 2021的数据评估了1990年至2021年因PM导致的CVD的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和伤残调整生命年（DALY）。采用年龄-时期-队列模型和Joinpoint回归分析来评估时间趋势。由于贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型在处理长期流行病学趋势方面具有稳健性，且纳入了先验信息以提高预测稳定性，因此被选用来预测直至2045年的未来负担。
1990年至2021年期间，因PM导致的CVD的全球死亡人数和DALY分别增加了91.68%和78.89%。尽管有这些增加，但ASMR和年龄标准化DALY率显著下降，尤其是在女性中。负担对社会人口统计学指数（SDI）较低和中等的地区影响尤大，存在显著的性别和年龄差异。老年人口和SDI较低的地区将承担更大的负担。预测表明，到2045年，死亡人数和DALY将增加约三倍，女性的增长更为明显。
该研究强调，尽管年龄标准化率有所改善，但因PM导致的CVD的全球负担已显著增加。由于人口老龄化、区域进展不均衡以及持续暴露于PM，需要采取有针对性的干预措施并加强空气质量法规，以减少对未来健康的影响。这些发现为全球卫生政策和战略提供了关键见解。
