Zhang Chuan, Zi Shanglin, Chen Quanzheng, Zhang Shuna
Department of Physical Education and Health, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin, China.
Department of Physical Education and Health, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
Front Med (Lausanne). 2024 Oct 23;11:1469298. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2024.1469298. eCollection 2024.
To systematically evaluate the global burden and trends of low back pain(LBP) associated with high Body Mass Index (BMI) and project future trends up to 2050 using Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model, providing scientific evidence for prioritizing global preventive actions.
Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, this research analyzes the disease burden of low back pain linked to high BMI globally, with Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) as the primary metric. We examined trends by gender, age, and exposure rate using Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) and projected future trends with the BAPC model.
In 2021, high BMI-related low back pain accounted for 8,363,759 DALYs, with an age-standardized rate of 97.66 per 100,000 population and an EAPC of 1.14. The DALYs rate varied significantly by country, with the United States, Australia, and Eastern Europe experiencing the highest rates, all exceeding 225 per 100,000 population. The burden has increased globally, with notable rises in China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Africa, where EAPCs surpassed 2.5. Regions with medium and high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) showed the most substantial increases, with the DALY rate in high SDI areas rising from 118.84 to 161.80 per 100,000, and in medium SDI areas from 41.92 to 79.10 per 100,000. Throughout the period from 1990 to 2021, females consistently experienced a higher burden of high BMI-related low back pain than males, with their DALY rate increasing from 92.01 to 126.29 per 100,000. The impact of high BMI on low back pain intensified with age, peaking in the 70-74 age group at 294.13 per 100,000, and then declining to 196.43 per 100,000 in those aged 95 and above. The BAPC model projects that by 2050, the number of DALYs will reach 15,558,278, an increase of 7,806,121 from 2021.
From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of low back pain attributable to high BMI has intensified, particularly affecting females, younger elderly, and developed regions. With increasing global aging and obesity rates, the burden is expected to continue rising rapidly without sustained and effective targeted interventions.
使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型系统评估与高体重指数（BMI）相关的腰痛（LBP）的全球负担和趋势，并预测到2050年的未来趋势，为全球预防性行动的优先排序提供科学依据。
本研究利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021研究的数据，以伤残调整生命年（DALYs）为主要指标，分析全球与高BMI相关的腰痛的疾病负担。我们使用估计年百分比变化（EAPC）按性别、年龄和暴露率研究趋势，并使用BAPC模型预测未来趋势。
2021年，与高BMI相关的腰痛导致8363759个DALYs，年龄标准化率为每10万人97.66例，EAPC为1.14。各国的DALYs率差异显著，美国、澳大利亚和东欧的发生率最高，均超过每10万人225例。全球负担有所增加，中国、东南亚、南亚和非洲显著上升，这些地区的EAPC超过2.5。社会人口指数（SDI）中高的地区增长最为显著，高SDI地区的DALY率从每10万人118.84例升至161.80例，中等SDI地区从每10万人41.92例升至79.10例。在1990年至2021年期间，女性始终比男性承受更高的与高BMI相关的腰痛负担，其DALY率从每10万人92.01例增至126.29例。高BMI对腰痛的影响随年龄增长而加剧，在70-74岁年龄组达到峰值，为每10万人294.13例，然后在95岁及以上人群中降至每10万人196.43例。BAPC模型预测，到2050年，DALYs数量将达到15558278例，比2021年增加7806121例。
1990年至2021年，全球因高BMI导致的腰痛负担加剧，尤其影响女性、老年人群和发达地区。随着全球老龄化和肥胖率上升，如果没有持续有效的针对性干预措施，负担预计将继续迅速上升。
