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探索难以电气化领域减排方案的技术经济前景。

Exploring techno-economic landscapes of abatement options for hard-to-electrify sectors.

作者信息

Bachorz Clara, Verpoort Philipp C, Luderer Gunnar, Ueckerdt Falko

机构信息

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.

Global Energy Systems Analysis, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2025 Apr 28;16(1):3984. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59277-1.

Abstract

Approximately 20% of global CO emissions originate from sectors often labeled as hard-to-abate, which are challenging or impossible to electrify. Alternative abatement options are necessary for these sectors but face critical bottlenecks, particularly concerning the availability and cost of low-emission hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and non-fossil CO for synthetic fuels or carbon-dioxide removal. In this study, we conduct a broad techno-economic analysis, mapping abatement options and hard-to-electrify sectors while addressing associated technological uncertainties. Our findings reveal a diverse mitigation landscape that can be categorized into three tiers, based on the abatement cost and technologies required. By requiring long-term climate neutrality through simple conditions, the mitigation landscape narrows substantially, with single options dominating each sector. This clarity justifies targeted political support for sector-specific abatement options, increasing investment security for transforming hard-to-electrify sectors.

摘要

全球约20%的一氧化碳排放源自通常被视为难以减排的行业,这些行业难以或无法实现电气化。对于这些行业而言,需要其他减排方案,但面临关键瓶颈,尤其是在低排放氢气、碳捕获与封存以及用于合成燃料或二氧化碳去除的非化石一氧化碳的可用性和成本方面。在本研究中,我们进行了广泛的技术经济分析,绘制了减排方案和难以电气化的行业,同时解决相关的技术不确定性。我们的研究结果揭示了一个多样化的减排格局,根据减排成本和所需技术可分为三个层次。通过简单条件要求实现长期气候中和,减排格局大幅缩小,每个行业都由单一方案主导。这种清晰性证明了针对特定行业减排方案的有针对性的政治支持是合理的,提高了转型难以电气化行业的投资安全性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5cd8/12037817/37fb0c15ecfe/41467_2025_59277_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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