1990年至2021年全球、区域和国家哮喘负担及到2050年的发病率预测：全球疾病负担研究2021的系统分析

Global, regional, national burden of asthma from 1990 to 2021, with projections of incidence to 2050: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.

作者信息

Yuan Linna, Tao Junxian, Wang Jiacheng, She Wei, Zou Yuping, Li Ruilin, Ma Yingnan, Sun Chen, Bi Shuo, Wei Siyu, Chen Haiyan, Guo Xuying, Tian Hongsheng, Xu Jing, Dong Yu, Ma Ye, Sun Hongmei, Lv Wenhua, Shang Zhenwei, Jiang Yongshuai, Lv Hongchao, Zhang Mingming

机构信息

College of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China.

出版信息

EClinicalMedicine. 2025 Jan 9;80:103051. doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.103051. eCollection 2025 Feb.

BACKGROUND

Asthma is the second leading cause of mortality among chronic respiratory illnesses. This study provided a comprehensive analysis of the burden of asthma.

METHODS

Data on asthma were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. We focused on the effects of age, sex, risk factors, and the socio-demographic index (SDI) on the burden of asthma and calculated the average annual percent change (AAPC) via joinpoint regression. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was adopted to estimate the causal relationships between risk factors and asthma. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict incidence patterns of asthma from 2022 to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there was an observed prevalence of asthma, with 3,340 cases per 100,000 people. Males who were below 20 years old had a greater prevalence of asthma. The incidence and prevalence correlated positively with the SDI, whereas mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) correlated negatively. The contribution of high body mass index (BMI) to asthma DALYs increased by 4.3% worldwide between 1990 and 2021. MR studies have confirmed that high BMI and smoking can increase the risk of asthma. The prediction results indicated that the global age-standardised incidence rate will remain high from 2022 to 2050.

INTERPRETATION

The global mortality of patients with asthma is a significant concern. The analysis of the burden of asthma can help formulate public health policies, allocate resources, and prevent asthma.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China; Program for Young Talents of Basic Research in Universities of Heilongjiang Province; Marshal Initiative Funding; Mathematical Tianyuan Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China; XingLian Outstanding Talent Support Program 2024.

背景

哮喘是慢性呼吸道疾病中第二大致死原因。本研究对哮喘负担进行了全面分析。

方法

从《2021年全球疾病、伤害及风险因素负担研究》（GBD 2021）中提取哮喘相关数据。我们重点关注年龄、性别、风险因素和社会人口学指数（SDI）对哮喘负担的影响，并通过连接点回归计算平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）。采用两样本孟德尔随机化（MR）方法估计风险因素与哮喘之间的因果关系。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测2022年至2050年哮喘的发病模式。

研究结果

2021年，观察到哮喘患病率为每10万人中有3340例。20岁以下男性哮喘患病率更高。发病率和患病率与SDI呈正相关，而死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）呈负相关。1990年至2021年期间，全球高体重指数（BMI）对哮喘DALY的贡献增加了4.3%。MR研究证实，高BMI和吸烟会增加患哮喘的风险。预测结果表明，2022年至2050年全球年龄标准化发病率将居高不下。