Fisch-Romito Vivien, Jaxa-Rozen Marc, Wen Xin, Trutnevyte Evelina
Renewable Energy Systems Group, Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
Present Address: Institute of Geography and Sustainability, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Nat Energy. 2025;10(4):460-469. doi: 10.1038/s41560-025-01719-7. Epub 2025 Feb 21.
Integrated assessment and energy system models are challenged to account for societal transformation dynamics, but empirical evidence is lacking on which factors to incorporate, how and to what extent this would improve the relevance of modelled pathways. Here we include six societal factors related to infrastructure dynamics, actors and decision-making, and social and institutional context into an open-source simulation model of the national power system transition. We apply this model in 31 European countries and, using hindcasting (1990-2019), quantify which societal factors improved the modelled pathways. We find that, if well-chosen and in most cases, incorporating societal factors can improve the hindcasting performance by up to 27% for modelled installed capacity of individual technologies. Public acceptance, investment risks and infrastructure lockin contribute the most to model performance improvement. Our study paves the way to a systematic and objective selection of societal factors to be included in energy transition modelling.
综合评估和能源系统模型在考虑社会转型动态方面面临挑战，但缺乏关于应纳入哪些因素、如何纳入以及这将在多大程度上提高模型路径相关性的实证证据。在此，我们将与基础设施动态、行为主体和决策以及社会和制度背景相关的六个社会因素纳入国家电力系统转型的开源模拟模型。我们在31个欧洲国家应用此模型，并通过历史模拟（1990 - 2019年）量化哪些社会因素改善了模型路径。我们发现，如果选择得当，在大多数情况下，纳入社会因素可使单个技术的模拟装机容量的历史模拟性能提高多达27%。公众接受度、投资风险和基础设施锁定对模型性能提升贡献最大。我们的研究为系统、客观地选择纳入能源转型建模的社会因素铺平了道路。
