Edson Timothy C, Louderback Eric R, Tom Matthew A, LaPlante Debi A
Division on Addiction, Cambridge Health Alliance, Malden, MA, USA.
Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA , USA.
J Gambl Stud. 2025 May 10. doi: 10.1007/s10899-025-10391-1.
Loss chasing is a defining clinical criterion for Gambling Disorder. Using actual player records, we investigated the potential for a multidimensional loss chasing concept (based on bet size, betting odds, and time between bets) to predict potential gambling harm among online sports bettors (N = 36,331) and daily fantasy sports (DFS) players (N = 34,596). Our main focus was whether optimized thresholds (derived from ROC analysis) for loss chasing yielded greater predictive value than both median-derived thresholds and a natural continuous form. Compared to the other tested forms of chasing, optimized thresholds of loss chasing showed the most promise (i.e., positive and statistically significant effects and improved model fit) for two out of three dimensions (i.e., bet size and odds) for one outcome (i.e., loss trajectory) among sports bettors. For these bettors and outcomes, all three loss chasing dimensions predicted the outcome in isolation; however, grouping all three expressions into a single model yielded poor model fit. Loss chasing effects were less apparent (generally non-significant or in the negative direction) for another outcome (i.e., percent change in net loss) and among DFS players. Still, this study demonstrates the promise of a multidimensional concept of loss chasing, and the potential for optimized thresholds to improve prediction of potential harm-related outcomes.
追逐损失是赌博障碍的一个决定性临床标准。我们利用实际玩家记录，研究了一个多维追逐损失概念（基于赌注大小、投注赔率和投注间隔时间）预测在线体育投注者（N = 36331）和日常梦幻体育（DFS）玩家（N = 34596）潜在赌博危害的可能性。我们主要关注的是，与中位数衍生阈值和自然连续形式相比，通过ROC分析得出的追逐损失优化阈值是否具有更高的预测价值。与其他测试的追逐形式相比，在体育投注者的一个结果（即损失轨迹）的三个维度（即赌注大小和赔率）中的两个维度上，追逐损失的优化阈值显示出最大的前景（即正向且具有统计学意义的效应以及改善的模型拟合）。对于这些投注者和结果，所有三个追逐损失维度单独来看都能预测结果；然而，将所有三个表达式组合成一个单一模型时，模型拟合度较差。对于另一个结果（即净损失百分比变化）以及DFS玩家，追逐损失效应不太明显（通常不显著或呈负向）。尽管如此，本研究证明了多维追逐损失概念的前景，以及优化阈值改善潜在危害相关结果预测的潜力。
