Cámara-Aceituno Juan, Hermoso-Orzáez Manuel Jesús, Terrados-Cepeda Julio, Rivadeneira-Zambrano Andrés, Mena-Nieto Ángel, Golpe Antonio A, Garcia-Ramos Jose-Enrique
Department of Engineering Graphics, Design and Projects, University of Jaén, Jaén, Andalusia, 23701, Spain.
Department of Agroindustrial Processes, Technical University of Manabi, Chone, Manabí Province, Ecuador.
Open Res Eur. 2025 May 12;5:132. doi: 10.12688/openreseurope.20224.1. eCollection 2025.
The analysis of the evolution of CO emissions of a given region is of key interest to understand the effect of past policies and to better design the future ones. The 27 European Union countries (EU) constitute a unique region for such a study because it has a strong common policy for reducing CO emissions and, therefore, it is of great interest to measure its influence.
This study employed the logarithmic-mean Divisia index (LMDI) technique, an expanded version of the Kaya identity, the Tapio decoupling method, and convergence and cluster analysis. This study examined the driving forces behind CO emissions, including population, economic activity, energy intensity, and energy sources. The period under study is 1990-2021.
The results obtained for the 27 member states were diverse. However, some common patterns have emerged: economic activity is the primary driver of CO emissions, while energy intensity plays a crucial role in reducing emissions, even more than the contribution from renewable energies. The analysis reveals a consistent decline in recent years attributed to rigorous EU policies to meet the CO emissions target outlined in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Notably, countries with longer-standing EU memberships tend to exhibit more positive outcomes. Additionally, a study on the convergence of the 27 countries reveals the existence of several clusters and clubs of convergence.
This study offers valuable insights for evaluating the energy and environmental policies of EU countries, serving as a valuable resource for energy policymakers worldwide.
分析特定区域的二氧化碳排放演变对于理解过去政策的影响以及更好地设计未来政策至关重要。27个欧盟国家构成了进行此类研究的独特区域，因为它有强有力的减少二氧化碳排放的共同政策，因此，衡量其影响非常有意义。
本研究采用对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）技术、凯亚恒等式的扩展版本、Tapio脱钩方法以及收敛性和聚类分析。本研究考察了二氧化碳排放背后的驱动因素，包括人口、经济活动、能源强度和能源来源。研究时间段为1990年至2021年。
27个成员国的研究结果各不相同。然而，出现了一些共同模式：经济活动是二氧化碳排放的主要驱动因素，而能源强度在减排方面发挥着关键作用，甚至超过了可再生能源的贡献。分析表明，近年来由于欧盟为实现其国家自主贡献（NDC）中规定的二氧化碳排放目标而采取的严格政策，排放量持续下降。值得注意的是，欧盟成员国资格存续时间较长的国家往往表现出更积极的成果。此外，对27个国家收敛性的研究揭示了几个收敛集群和俱乐部。
本研究为评估欧盟国家的能源和环境政策提供了有价值的见解，是全球能源政策制定者的宝贵资源。
