Exploring the driving forces of CO emissions in the European Union.

BACKGROUND

The analysis of the evolution of CO emissions of a given region is of key interest to understand the effect of past policies and to better design the future ones. The 27 European Union countries (EU) constitute a unique region for such a study because it has a strong common policy for reducing CO emissions and, therefore, it is of great interest to measure its influence.

METHODS

This study employed the logarithmic-mean Divisia index (LMDI) technique, an expanded version of the Kaya identity, the Tapio decoupling method, and convergence and cluster analysis. This study examined the driving forces behind CO emissions, including population, economic activity, energy intensity, and energy sources. The period under study is 1990-2021.

RESULTS

The results obtained for the 27 member states were diverse. However, some common patterns have emerged: economic activity is the primary driver of CO emissions, while energy intensity plays a crucial role in reducing emissions, even more than the contribution from renewable energies. The analysis reveals a consistent decline in recent years attributed to rigorous EU policies to meet the CO emissions target outlined in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Notably, countries with longer-standing EU memberships tend to exhibit more positive outcomes. Additionally, a study on the convergence of the 27 countries reveals the existence of several clusters and clubs of convergence.

CONCLUSIONS

This study offers valuable insights for evaluating the energy and environmental policies of EU countries, serving as a valuable resource for energy policymakers worldwide.