Madaleno Mara, Moutinho Victor
GOVCOPP - Research Unit on Governance, Competitiveness and Public Policy (project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006939); DEGEIT - Department of Economics, Management, Industrial Engineering and Tourism, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193, Aveiro, Portugal.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2017 Apr;24(11):10234-10257. doi: 10.1007/s11356-017-8547-y. Epub 2017 Mar 6.
This study breaks down carbon emissions into six effects within the current 28 European Union (EU) countries group, thereafter, they are divided into two different groups (the first 15 countries (EU-15) and the last 13 entering the EU (EU13)). Country-specific highlights are also examined. It analyses the evolution of the effects using a data span that runs from 1990 to 2014, to determine which of them had more impact on the intensity of emissions, while also breaking down the complete period into two distinct periods (before the Kyoto protocol (1990-2004) and after Kyoto (2005-2014)). In order to add more knowledge to the current literature, both the additive and multiplicative decomposition techniques were used to examine carbon dioxide (CO) emissions and the selected six components: carbon intensity, fossil fuel consumption, energy intensity, oil imports intensity, oil dependence, and population effect. Results point to different adapting velocities for Kyoto targets and necessary compromises. The different velocities were translated into different positive and negative impacts in the change of behavior of CO emissions throughout Europe. A stress in the fluctuations in CO variations before and after Kyoto and between the two different groups of EU countries could be noticed. Moreover, energy intensity and per capita dependence of oil products were identified as the major responsible components for the total and negative changes of emissions in recent years. A decrease in total changes of emissions is observed due to the fossil fuel energy consumption effect and total petroleum products effects. It is possible to infer from here that increased renewable capacity is contributing in a positive way to eco-efficiency, and should therefore be accounted for in national policymakers' decisions in the strongest way possible. Results also seem to indicate that per capita dependence of oil products has decreased, despite oil imports intensity constancy and increased renewable capacity, however, with clear heterogeneous effects, worthy of consideration when defining policies.
本研究将碳排放细分为当前欧盟28国集团内部的六种效应，之后，它们被分为两个不同的组（前15个国家（欧盟15国）和后13个加入欧盟的国家（欧盟13国））。还对各国的突出情况进行了考察。它使用1990年至2014年的数据跨度来分析这些效应的演变，以确定其中哪些对排放强度影响更大，同时还将整个时期分为两个不同阶段（《京都议定书》之前（1990 - 2004年）和京都之后（2005 - 2014年））。为了给当前文献增添更多知识，采用了加法和乘法分解技术来研究二氧化碳（CO）排放以及选定的六个组成部分：碳强度、化石燃料消耗、能源强度、石油进口强度、石油依赖和人口效应。结果表明对京都目标有不同的适应速度以及必要的妥协。不同的速度在整个欧洲二氧化碳排放行为变化中转化为不同的正负影响。可以注意到京都前后以及两组不同欧盟国家之间二氧化碳变化波动中的一种压力。此外，能源强度和石油产品的人均依赖被确定为近年来排放总量和负面变化的主要责任组成部分。由于化石燃料能源消耗效应和石油产品总量效应，观察到排放总量变化有所下降。由此可以推断，可再生能源产能的增加正在以积极方式促进生态效率，因此应在国家政策制定者的决策中尽可能有力地加以考虑。结果似乎还表明，尽管石油进口强度保持不变且可再生能源产能增加，但石油产品的人均依赖有所下降，不过存在明显的异质性影响，在制定政策时值得考虑。
