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当参数快速变化时,早期预警就为时已晚了。

Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly.

作者信息

Radhakrishnan Rohit, Pavithran Induja, Livina Valerie, Kurths Jürgen, Sujith R I

机构信息

Department of Aerospace Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, 600036, India.

Centre of Excellence for studying Critical Transitions in Complex Systems, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, 600036, India.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jun 23;15(1):20256. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-06525-5.

Abstract

Tipping (or sudden transition) from a desirable state to an undesirable one can result in catastrophic changes, affecting natural environments, human societies and economies. Early warning signals (EWSs) are developed to forewarn such an impending tipping. However, when control parameters are varied fast, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points; this questions the applicability of EWSs in preventing tipping. At the same time, the fast rate of change of parameter delays the actual tipping event, providing a borrowed window of safe operation. This delay in tipping offers a window for prevention through swift action. We demonstrate instances of both successful and unsuccessful preventions, in a paradigmatic thermoacoustic system-a horizontal Rijke tube. This work highlights the interplay of warning time, choice of prevention action and rate of variation of parameters in EWS-based prevention of tipping.

摘要

从理想状态向不良状态的转变(或突然转变)可能会导致灾难性变化,影响自然环境、人类社会和经济。早期预警信号(EWSs)旨在预先警告这种即将发生的转变。然而,当控制参数快速变化时,我们观察到早期预警信号在分岔点之后才检测到即将发生的转变;这对早期预警信号在预防转变方面的适用性提出了质疑。同时,参数的快速变化速率会延迟实际的转变事件,提供一个借来的安全运行窗口。这种转变的延迟为通过迅速行动进行预防提供了一个窗口。我们在一个典型的热声系统——水平瑞利管中展示了成功和不成功预防的实例。这项工作突出了在基于早期预警信号的转变预防中,预警时间、预防行动的选择和参数变化速率之间的相互作用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bd14/12185748/e09b5b5d07b9/41598_2025_6525_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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