Zhou Yaqing, Liu Tao, Meng Yao, Ji Zhenjun, Chen Zhongpu, Ma Genshan
Department of Cardiology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Jun 26;13:1608351. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1608351. eCollection 2025.
Alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) is a severe cardiovascular condition caused by chronic excessive alcohol consumption, leading to heart failure, increased morbidity, and mortality. This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the global burden of ACM among middle-aged males from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. Additionally, we projected future trends until 2050 using time-series forecasting models.
We extracted ACM-related mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) from the GBD 2021 dataset across 204 countries and territories. Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Regional clustering was performed using hierarchical analysis. Future projections were estimated using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) models.
In 2021, ACM caused 51,494 deaths (95% UI: 44,031-56,451), with an age-standardized death rate of 1.24 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.06-1.36). DALYs reached 1,771,812 (95% UI: 1,521,953-1,943,500), with an age-standardized rate of 41.81 per 100,000 (95% UI: 35.97-45.8). The burden was highest in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Latin America. Future projections suggest a potential stabilization or gradual decline in ACM burden, though mortality and DALYs remain high in some regions.
ACM remains a major global health challenge, particularly in middle-aged males. Regional disparities highlight the need for targeted alcohol control policies and improved cardiovascular healthcare. Strengthened public health interventions are crucial to mitigating ACM-related mortality and disability.
酒精性心肌病（ACM）是一种由长期过量饮酒引起的严重心血管疾病，可导致心力衰竭、发病率和死亡率增加。本研究旨在利用全球疾病负担（GBD）数据全面分析1990年至2021年全球中年男性中ACM的负担情况。此外，我们使用时间序列预测模型预测了到2050年的未来趋势。
我们从GBD 2021数据集中提取了204个国家和地区与ACM相关的死亡率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）、带病生存年数（YLDs）和寿命损失年数（YLLs）。使用估计年度百分比变化（EAPC）评估时间趋势。使用层次分析法进行区域聚类。使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）和指数平滑（ES）模型估计未来预测。
2021年，ACM导致51494人死亡（95%不确定区间：44031 - 56451），年龄标准化死亡率为每10万人1.24例（95%不确定区间：1.06 - 1.36）。DALYs达到1771812（95%不确定区间：1521953 - 1943500），年龄标准化率为每10万人41.81例（95%不确定区间：35.97 - 45.8）。负担在东欧、中亚和拉丁美洲最高。未来预测表明，ACM负担可能会稳定或逐渐下降，尽管某些地区的死亡率和DALYs仍然很高。
ACM仍然是一项重大的全球健康挑战，尤其是在中年男性中。区域差异凸显了制定有针对性的酒精控制政策和改善心血管医疗保健的必要性。加强公共卫生干预对于减轻与ACM相关的死亡率和残疾至关重要。
