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全球、区域和国家骨骼及关节软骨恶性肿瘤负担的性别差异:一项系统分析及到2050年的预测

Global, Regional, and National Sex Disparities in the Burden of Malignant Neoplasms of Bone and Articular Cartilage: a Systematic Analysis and Projections to 2050.

作者信息

Wang Hao, Guan Mingjing, Li Luling, Zhao Zhijie, Wu Jie, Liu Daohong, Chen Mingxue

机构信息

Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.

Department of Nephrology, Kidney Research Institute, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.

出版信息

Ann Surg Oncol. 2025 Sep 16. doi: 10.1245/s10434-025-18258-w.

DOI:10.1245/s10434-025-18258-w
PMID:40956535
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Primary malignant neoplasms of bone and articular cartilage disproportionately affect younger populations, causing premature mortality and long-term disability. Despite recognized sex-based disparities, global analyses of sociodemographic influences and future projections remain limited.

METHODS

Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data from global, regional, and national levels across 204 countries or territories, we analyzed sex-, age-, and region-stratified incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In addition, we evaluated temporal trends (1990-2021), socioeconomic disparities, and projected burden to 2050.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2021, global age-standardized incidence rate increased 14.28%; males experienced an 18.3% increase compared with 7.68% in females. Age-standardized mortality rate stabilized globally but diverged by sex (males: +2.09%; females: -3.91%). Age-standardized DALYs rate increased marginally overall (0.1%), driven by rising male (+3.95%) and declining female (-5.95%) burdens. Lower socioeconomic regions (e.g., eastern sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia) faced disproportionately high burdens, contrasting with high-income regions. By 2050, the ASIR for male is projected to increase 20.44%, whereas female may decline (-12.99%), with low Sociodemographic Index countries bearing escalating burdens.

CONCLUSIONS

Persistent gender disparities highlight higher incidence, mortality, and DALYs among males, consistent across regions and most age groups. The shifting burden toward lower-resource settings underscores systemic inequities in healthcare access.

摘要

背景

骨和关节软骨原发性恶性肿瘤对年轻人群的影响尤为严重,导致过早死亡和长期残疾。尽管存在公认的性别差异,但对社会人口学影响的全球分析和未来预测仍然有限。

方法

利用来自204个国家或地区全球、区域和国家层面的2021年全球疾病负担数据,我们分析了按性别、年龄和地区分层的发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年(DALYs)。此外,我们评估了时间趋势(1990 - 2021年)、社会经济差异以及到2050年的预计负担。

结果

1990年至2021年间,全球年龄标准化发病率上升了14.28%;男性上升了18.3%,而女性为7.68%。全球年龄标准化死亡率稳定,但按性别有所分化(男性:+2.09%;女性:-3.91%)。年龄标准化DALYs率总体略有上升(0.1%),这是由男性负担上升(+3.95%)和女性负担下降(-5.95%)推动的。社会经济水平较低的地区(如撒哈拉以南非洲东部、东南亚)面临着过高的负担,与高收入地区形成对比。到2050年,预计男性的年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)将上升20.44%,而女性可能下降(-12.99%),社会人口指数较低的国家负担将不断加重。

结论

持续存在的性别差异表明男性的发病率、死亡率和DALYs更高,在各地区和大多数年龄组中都是如此。负担向资源匮乏地区转移凸显了医疗保健可及性方面的系统性不平等。

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