大伦敦地区的流行性感冒
Epidemic influenza in Greater London.
作者信息
Spicer C C, Lawrence C J
出版信息
J Hyg (Lond). 1984 Aug;93(1):105-12. doi: 10.1017/s0022172400060988.
Abstract
The Kermack & McKendrick theory of epidemics has been applied to data on deaths from influenza and influenzal pneumonia in Greater London in the years 1950-78. As a whole the theory gives a good description of the data, and the estimated values of the parameters can be plausibly related to the natural history of the disease. However, the possibility exists that the agreement is merely empirical, and field studies would be required to confirm its validity.
摘要
克马克与麦肯德里克的流行病理论已应用于1950年至1978年大伦敦地区流感及流感性肺炎死亡数据。总体而言，该理论对数据给出了很好的描述，且参数估计值能合理地与疾病的自然史相关联。然而，有可能这种一致性仅仅是经验性的，还需要实地研究来证实其有效性。
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