Keen H, Jarrett R J, McCartney P
Diabetologia. 1982 Feb;22(2):73-8. doi: 10.1007/BF00254832.
In a 10-year prospective study of 241 people with 'borderline diabetes' (impaired glucose tolerance) identified by screening of the Bedford adult population, 36 (15%) worsened to diabetes and 128 (53%) substantially improved their glucose tolerance. The major predictor of worsening to diabetes was the level of blood glucose at baseline. This was statistically significant (p less than 0.05), independent of other factors, both for deterioration in the first and in the second five years of observation. Body mass index, a measure of adiposity, did not predict worsening to diabetes during the first five years, but was an independent and significant predictor of worsening during the second five years (p less than 0.05). The apparent effect of adiposity was complex, for it was also significantly related to improvement in glucose tolerance during the 10-year follow-up. Persons with impaired glucose tolerance are a heterogeneous group and with present knowledge the ability to predict metabolic deterioration is limited.
在一项针对通过贝德福德成年人群筛查确定的241名“边缘性糖尿病”（糖耐量受损）患者的10年前瞻性研究中，36人（15%）病情恶化为糖尿病，128人（53%）的糖耐量显著改善。病情恶化为糖尿病的主要预测因素是基线血糖水平。这在统计学上具有显著意义（p小于0.05），与其他因素无关，在观察的前五年和后五年病情恶化情况均如此。体重指数是衡量肥胖程度的指标，在前五年中不能预测病情恶化为糖尿病，但在第二个五年中是病情恶化的独立且显著的预测因素（p小于0.05）。肥胖的明显影响较为复杂，因为在10年随访期间它也与糖耐量改善显著相关。糖耐量受损的人群是一个异质性群体，就目前的知识而言，预测代谢恶化的能力有限。
