Prior P, Waterhouse J A
Br J Cancer. 1981 May;43(5):615-22. doi: 10.1038/bjc.1981.91.
A statistical model has been proposed in an attempt to integrate coincidental (or synchronous) diagnoses of multiple primary cancers into a general method of analysis. In the context of population-based surveys, such diagnoses form an integral part of the pattern of incidence within the population. Because of clinical surveillance, the diagnosis of subsequent tumours may be advanced in time in comparison with a first primary diagnosis. The model has been used to predict the altered pattern of diagnosis in order to adjust the value of expected numbers. Data from a previously reported survey of bilateral breast cancer have been used to illustrate the model. Analysis in terms of the model showed a 2.6-fold increase in risk for a second primary tumour in the contralateral breast in a series of nearly 22,000 breast-cancer patients. The corresponding risks for 3 main age-ranges (at the time of diagnosis of the first primary) were 5.3 (age 15-44), 3.3 (45-49) and 1.5 (60+). In addition, a maximal risk of 5.0-fold was observed in the series as a whole during the third year after the diagnosis of the first primary.
有人提出了一种统计模型，试图将多种原发性癌症的同时（或同步）诊断整合到一种通用的分析方法中。在基于人群的调查背景下，此类诊断构成了人群发病率模式的一个组成部分。由于临床监测，与首次原发性诊断相比，后续肿瘤的诊断时间可能会提前。该模型已被用于预测诊断模式的变化，以便调整预期数字的值。先前报道的双侧乳腺癌调查数据已被用于说明该模型。根据该模型进行的分析显示，在一系列近22000名乳腺癌患者中，对侧乳房发生第二原发性肿瘤的风险增加了2.6倍。（首次原发性诊断时）3个主要年龄范围的相应风险分别为5.3（15 - 44岁）、3.3（45 - 49岁）和1.5（60岁以上）。此外，在整个系列中，首次原发性诊断后的第三年观察到最大风险为5.0倍。
