Hopkinson N D, Muir K R, Oliver M A, Doherty M, Powell R J
Department of Immunology, Queen's Medical Centre, Nottingham, United Kingdom.
Ann Rheum Dis. 1995 Nov;54(11):891-5. doi: 10.1136/ard.54.11.891.
To determine the geographical distribution of cases of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a defined geographical area in the East Midlands, UK, and, in particular, to search for spatial variation in cases that may implicate the role of environmental factors in SLE aetiology.
Six methods of case ascertainment were used. The postcode of the patient's domicile at time of first definite symptom of SLE was used for analysis which included case mapping, probability mapping by electoral ward, and variogram analysis.
The study area population of 613,700 contained 200 SLE patients, 188 of whom experienced their first symptom whilst residing in the area. Case mapping revealed 12 SLE patients residing within an area of one square mile, including four men and six patients with RNP antibodies. The use of probability mapping showed five wards in close proximity to each other to have a greater number of SLE cases than would be expected by chance (p < 0.1). The 'cluster' of patients seen on the case map fell into two wards which showed a significant excess of cases only when combined (p = 0.006). The variogram of the incidence rates for each ward did not confirm any structure or pattern to the distribution of cases for the whole area.
Some areas have a greater than expected prevalence of SLE. The normal result from variogram analysis suggests that the cause(s) for these excess number of cases does not have an effect across the whole study area.
确定英国东米德兰兹特定地理区域内系统性红斑狼疮（SLE）病例的地理分布，特别是寻找病例中的空间差异，这可能暗示环境因素在SLE病因学中的作用。
采用六种病例确诊方法。将SLE首次出现明确症状时患者住所的邮政编码用于分析，包括病例地图绘制、按选区进行概率制图以及变异函数分析。
研究区域人口为613,700人，其中有200例SLE患者，其中188例在该地区居住期间首次出现症状。病例地图显示，在一平方英里的区域内有12例SLE患者，其中包括4名男性和6名有核糖核蛋白（RNP）抗体的患者。概率制图显示，有五个彼此相邻的选区SLE病例数比预期的偶然发生率要多（p < 0.1）。病例地图上看到的患者“聚集区”分布在两个选区，仅在合并时才显示出显著的病例过多情况（p = 0.006）。每个选区发病率的变异函数并未证实整个区域病例分布存在任何结构或模式。
一些地区SLE患病率高于预期。变异函数分析的正常结果表明，这些病例数过多的原因并未对整个研究区域产生影响。
