Stamatiadis N, Deacon J A
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Kentucky, Lexington 40506-0281, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 1995 Aug;27(4):443-59. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(94)00086-2.
Aging of the United States population has a potentially adverse effect on highway safety. A key question is whether the known deterioration of driving skills with aging will be compensated by other factors, especially improved learning and attitudinal experiences of more recent cohorts. We investigate effects of driver age, cohort, and gender on accident propensity and evaluate confounding effects of year, location, and lighting. The accident propensity of different groups of drivers is measured, using a database of two-vehicle accidents, by the ratio of the number of at-fault drivers of a specific group to the corresponding number of not-at-fault drivers. Logistic regression modelling determines the statistical significance of the findings. The analysis reveals the following statistically significant effects: (a) middle-aged drivers are safer than younger drivers who, in turn, are safer than older drivers; (b) female drivers are safer on average than male drivers; (c) younger female drivers are safer than younger male drivers; (d) older male drivers are safer than older female drivers; (e) more recent cohorts of older drivers are safer than more distant cohorts; and (f) more distant cohorts of younger drivers are safer than more recent cohorts. We conclude that driver cohort provides a plausible explanation for many of the measurable, time-related accident trends that are observed. Accordingly, older drivers will be safer in the future because they will have acquired basic driving skills and attitudes in increasingly more automobile-dominated times. At the same time, the cohort effect appears small relative to other time related effects, notably aging, and older drivers will continue to be a high-risk component of the driving population and to require special consideration in driver education and licensing and in highway design and operations.
美国人口老龄化对公路安全有潜在的不利影响。一个关键问题是，随着年龄增长而出现的已知驾驶技能衰退是否会被其他因素抵消，尤其是较新一代人更好的学习和态度方面的经验。我们研究了驾驶员年龄、代群和性别对事故倾向的影响，并评估了年份、地点和照明的混杂效应。利用两车事故数据库，通过特定群体中负有责任的驾驶员数量与相应不负有责任的驾驶员数量之比，来衡量不同驾驶员群体的事故倾向。逻辑回归模型确定了研究结果的统计显著性。分析揭示了以下具有统计显著性的影响：(a)中年驾驶员比年轻驾驶员更安全，而年轻驾驶员又比老年驾驶员更安全；(b)女性驾驶员平均比男性驾驶员更安全；(c)年轻女性驾驶员比年轻男性驾驶员更安全；(d)老年男性驾驶员比老年女性驾驶员更安全；(e)较新一代的老年驾驶员比较早代群的老年驾驶员更安全；(f)较早代群的年轻驾驶员比较新一代的年轻驾驶员更安全。我们得出结论，驾驶员代群为许多可测量的、与时间相关的事故趋势提供了一个合理的解释。因此，未来老年驾驶员会更安全，因为他们是在汽车主导程度越来越高的时代获得基本驾驶技能和态度的。与此同时，相对于其他与时间相关的影响，尤其是老龄化，代群效应似乎较小，老年驾驶员仍将是驾驶人群中的高风险群体，在驾驶员教育和执照发放以及公路设计和运营中需要特别考虑。
