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美国、瑞典、法国、英国和日本80岁及以上人群的生存率。

Survival after the age of 80 in the United States, Sweden, France, England, and Japan.

作者信息

Manton K G, Vaupel J W

机构信息

Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, N.C. 27708-0408, USA.

出版信息

N Engl J Med. 1995 Nov 2;333(18):1232-5. doi: 10.1056/NEJM199511023331824.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

In many developed countries, life expectancy at birth is higher than in the United States. Newly available data permit, for the first time, reliable cross-national comparisons of mortality among persons 80 years of age or older. Such comparisons are important, because in many developed countries more than half of women and a third of men now die after the age of 80.

METHODS

We used extinct-cohort methods to assess mortality in Japan, Sweden, France, and England (including Wales) and among U.S. whites for cohorts born from 1880 to 1894, and used cross-sectional data for the year 1987. Extinct-cohort methods rely on continuously collected data from death certificates and do not use the less reliable data from censuses.

RESULTS

In the United States, life expectancy at the age of 80 and survival from the ages of 80 to 100 significantly exceeded life expectancy in Sweden, France, England, and Japan (P < 0.01). This finding was confirmed with accurate cross-sectional data for 1987. The average life expectancy in the United States is 9.1 years for 80-year-old white women and 7.0 years for 80-year-old white men.

CONCLUSIONS

For people 80 years old or older, life expectancy is greater in the United States than it is in Sweden, France, England, and Japan. This finding suggests that elderly Americans are receiving better health care than the elderly citizens of other developed countries.

摘要

背景

在许多发达国家,出生时的预期寿命高于美国。新获得的数据首次使得对80岁及以上人群的死亡率进行可靠的跨国比较成为可能。此类比较很重要,因为在许多发达国家,现在超过一半的女性和三分之一的男性在80岁以后死亡。

方法

我们使用灭绝队列方法评估日本、瑞典、法国和英格兰(包括威尔士)以及美国白人中1880年至1894年出生队列的死亡率,并使用1987年的横断面数据。灭绝队列方法依赖于从死亡证明中持续收集的数据,而不使用来自人口普查的可靠性较低的数据。

结果

在美国,80岁时的预期寿命以及80岁至100岁之间的生存率显著超过瑞典、法国、英格兰和日本(P<0.01)。这一发现通过1987年准确的横断面数据得到了证实。美国80岁白人女性的平均预期寿命为9.1岁,80岁白人男性为7.0岁。

结论

对于80岁及以上的人群,美国的预期寿命高于瑞典、法国、英格兰和日本。这一发现表明,美国老年人比其他发达国家的老年人获得了更好的医疗保健。

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