Gruenewald P J, Ponicki W R
Prevention Research Center, Berkeley, CA 94704, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 1995 Apr;27(2):249-59. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(94)00067-v.
The research literature on the relationship of alcohol consumption to motor vehicle crash risk clearly implicates the importance of minimizing the use of alcohol in conjunction with the operation of motor vehicles. However, there has been relatively little documentation of the direct impact of changes in beverage-specific alcohol sales on the most common surrogate for alcohol-involved traffic crashes, single-vehicle nighttime fatalities. Similarly, there have been few studies of the relationship between the physical availability of alcohol and fatal crash rates which have concurrently controlled for differences in alcohol sales. Indeed, the possibility that reduced availability might lead to increases rather than decreases in fatal crashes (due to increased driving after drinking) has not been adequately tested. This paper presents a series of analyses of time-series cross-sectional data from 38 states over 12 years to evaluate the impact of changes in alcohol sales and the physical availability of alcohol upon single-vehicle nighttime fatal crashes. The results of the study showed, first, that independent of a number of economic and demographic covariates, rates of single-vehicle nighttime fatal crashes were most strongly related to sales of beer and less so to sales of spirits and wine. Second, net of beverage-specific alcohol sales, the physical availability of alcohol was not related to measurable changes in fatal crash rates. Thus, reductions in availability intended to reduce alcohol sales and problems would not appear to increase traffic-related crashes through increased driving exposure.
关于饮酒与机动车碰撞风险之间关系的研究文献明确表明，尽量减少饮酒并同时驾驶机动车至关重要。然而，针对特定饮料酒精销量变化对涉及酒精的交通事故最常见替代指标——单车夜间死亡事故的直接影响，相关记录相对较少。同样，很少有研究探讨酒精实际可得性与致命撞车率之间的关系，这些研究同时控制了酒精销售的差异。事实上，酒精可得性降低可能导致致命撞车事故增加而非减少（由于酒后驾车增加）这一可能性尚未得到充分验证。本文对来自38个州12年的时间序列横截面数据进行了一系列分析，以评估酒精销售变化和酒精实际可得性对单车夜间致命撞车事故的影响。研究结果表明，首先，独立于一些经济和人口协变量，单车夜间致命撞车率与啤酒销量的关联最为紧密，与烈酒和葡萄酒销量的关联则较弱。其次，在扣除特定饮料酒精销量后，酒精实际可得性与致命撞车率的可测量变化无关。因此，旨在减少酒精销售和相关问题的可得性降低措施似乎不会因驾驶暴露增加而导致与交通相关的撞车事故增加。
