Leufkens H, Haaijer-Ruskamp F, Bakker A, Dukes G
Department of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacotherapy, Utrecht University, Netherlands.
BMJ. 1994 Oct 29;309(6962):1137-40. doi: 10.1136/bmj.309.6962.1137.
Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future.
规划未来的药品政策存在诸多难题。药品行业的主要参与者对于他们周围世界的运转方式以及药品的未来发展方向有着各自的看法。在本文中，我们展示了情景分析如何能够提供一种强大的教学工具来调整人们的先入之见。情景是对未来不同可能性的看似合理的描绘，而非可能发生的或更可取的情况。构建了一系列四个不同的情景：“适度节制”“风险规避”“按需技术”和“无拘无束的自由市场”。每个情景都以叙事形式呈现，并尽可能进行量化记录，描述了如果特定趋势主导发展时世界可能呈现的样子。医学界和卫生政策制定者可以利用情景分析从长远角度看待问题，以便为未来做好充分准备。
