荷兰癌症登记处中乳腺癌长期预后的变化
Changes in long term prognosis for breast cancer in a Dutch cancer registry.
作者信息
Nab H W, Hop W C, Crommelin M A, Kluck H M, van der Heijden L H, Coebergh J W
机构信息
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Erasmus University Medical School, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
出版信息
BMJ. 1994 Jul 9;309(6947):83-6. doi: 10.1136/bmj.309.6947.83.
OBJECTIVES
To assess whether the long term survival of patients with breast cancer has changed with time.
DESIGN
Population based descriptive study.
SETTING
Eindhoven Cancer Registry in south east Netherlands.
SUBJECTS
2052 patients with first primary breast cancer diagnosed between 1955 and 1974.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES
Overall survival and relative survival.
RESULTS
Overall survival was 35% (727 patients) after 10 years, 21% (267) after 20 years, and 15% (25) after 30 years. The corresponding relative survival rates were 43%, 34%, and 34%, respectively. Survival improved from 1955 onwards for all ages and all tumour stages. Improvement was observed in both overall and relative survival. Prognosis was strongly related to the stage at diagnosis in the first 10 years of follow up but independent of stage after 10 years. Survival of patients still alive after 19 years became similar to that of the general female population.
CONCLUSIONS
Both short and long term survival improved considerably in all age groups. This improvement was most marked for patients who were diagnosed with a localised tumour. Patients who survive for 19 years may be considered cured.
目的
评估乳腺癌患者的长期生存率是否随时间发生了变化。
设计
基于人群的描述性研究。
地点
荷兰东南部的埃因霍温癌症登记处。
研究对象
1955年至1974年间确诊的2052例原发性乳腺癌患者。
主要观察指标
总生存率和相对生存率。
结果
10年后总生存率为35%（727例患者），20年后为21%（267例），30年后为15%（25例）。相应的相对生存率分别为43%、34%和34%。从1955年起，所有年龄组和所有肿瘤分期的生存率均有所提高。总生存率和相对生存率均有改善。在随访的前10年中，预后与诊断时的分期密切相关，但10年后则与分期无关。19年后仍存活的患者的生存率与一般女性人群相似。
结论
所有年龄组的短期和长期生存率均有显著提高。这种改善在诊断为局限性肿瘤的患者中最为明显。存活19年的患者可被视为治愈。
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