Evans L
Operating Sciences Department, General Motors Research, Warren, MI 48090-9055.
Am J Epidemiol. 1993 Apr 1;137(7):769-75. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116737.
Data from the Fatal Accident Reporting System for 1975-1990 were used to perform longitudinal analyses of car driver fatality rates (driver fatalities per million population) for a 16-year period; for example, the fatality rate of drivers born in 1960 was examined for ages 15 years through 30 years. It was found that fatality rates for male drivers of a given age systematically decline with increasing birth year; for example, 20-year-olds born in 1970 have lower fatality rates than do 20-year-olds born in 1960. The fatality rates for cohorts of drivers of either sex do not begin to increase appreciably until about age 70 years, and then they approximately double by age 80 years. These increases are of a lesser magnitude, and occur later, than those found in the earlier cross-sectional analyses that identified the "older driver problem."
1975年至1990年致命事故报告系统的数据被用于对16年间汽车驾驶员死亡率（每百万人口中的驾驶员死亡人数）进行纵向分析；例如，对1960年出生的驾驶员在15岁至30岁年龄段的死亡率进行了研究。结果发现，特定年龄男性驾驶员的死亡率随着出生年份的增加而系统性下降；例如，1970年出生的20岁驾驶员的死亡率低于1960年出生的20岁驾驶员。任何性别的驾驶员队列的死亡率直到大约70岁才开始明显上升，然后在80岁时大约翻倍。与早期识别“老年驾驶员问题”的横断面分析相比，这些上升幅度较小且发生时间较晚。
