利用年龄队列模型估算台湾地区的预期寿命。
Estimating life expectancy using an age-cohort model in Taiwan.
作者信息
Lee W C, Hsieh R L
机构信息
Graduate Institute of Epidemiology, National Taiwan University, Taipei, ROC.
出版信息
J Epidemiol Community Health. 1996 Apr;50(2):214-7. doi: 10.1136/jech.50.2.214.
OBJECTIVES
Life expectation is a valuable summary index in public health and actuarial science. The life expectancies published in the vital statistics, however, are derived from the "current" rather than from the "cohort" life table. The former is based on a strong assumption of constant mortality in the population, whereas the latter calls for a recording of the mortality experience of a group of individuals, which is often an impossible task. Thus, a method of calculating cohort life expectancy without actual follow up is much needed.
METHODS
Estimation of cohort life expectancy was based on an age-cohort model. Mortality data for the male population in Taiwan from 1951 to 1990 are used to illustrate the methodology.
RESULTS
The increment of life expectancy over time in Taiwan is actually steeper than was previously thought using the current life table technique.
CONCLUSIONS
The method is easy to implement and the data required are the usual age and period cross classified mortality data. It warrants further investigation.
目的
预期寿命是公共卫生和精算科学中的一个重要汇总指标。然而，生命统计中公布的预期寿命是基于“当前”而非“队列”生命表得出的。前者基于人口死亡率恒定这一强假设，而后者则要求记录一组个体的死亡经历，这通常是一项不可能完成的任务。因此，非常需要一种无需实际随访就能计算队列预期寿命的方法。
方法
队列预期寿命的估计基于年龄队列模型。使用1951年至1990年台湾男性人口的死亡率数据来说明该方法。
结果
台湾地区预期寿命随时间的增长实际上比使用当前生命表技术之前认为的更为陡峭。
结论
该方法易于实施，所需数据为常见的年龄和时期交叉分类死亡率数据。值得进一步研究。
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