Jones B T, McMahon J
Department of Psychology, University of Glasgow, UK.
Addiction. 1996 Jan;91(1):89-99. doi: 10.1046/j.1360-0443.1996.9118911.x.
Within social learning theory, positive alcohol expectancies represent motivation to drink and negative expectancies, motivation to restrain. It is also recognized that a subjective evaluation of expectancies ought to moderate their impact, although the evidence for this in social drinkers is problematic. This paper addresses the speculation that the moderating effect will be more evident in clinical populations. This study shows that (i) both expectancy and value reliably, independently and equally predict clients' abstinence survivorship following discharge from a treatment programme (and that this is almost entirely confined to the negative rather than positive terms). When (ii) expectancy evaluations are processed against expectancy through multiplicative composites (i.e. expectancy x value), their predictive power is only equivalent to either expectancy or value on its own. However (iii) when the multiplicative composite is assessed following the statistical guidelines advocated by Evans (1991) (i.e. within the same model as its constituents, expectancy and value) the increase in outcome variance explained by its inclusion is negligible and casts doubt upon its use in alcohol research. This does not appear to apply to value, however, and its possible role in treatment is discussed.
在社会学习理论中，积极的酒精预期代表饮酒的动机，而消极预期则代表克制饮酒的动机。人们也认识到，预期的主观评价应该调节它们的影响，尽管在社交饮酒者中这方面的证据存在问题。本文探讨了这样一种推测，即这种调节效应在临床人群中会更加明显。本研究表明：（i）预期和价值都能可靠、独立且同等程度地预测治疗项目出院后客户的戒酒存活率（而且这几乎完全局限于消极而非积极方面）。当（ii）通过乘法复合（即预期×价值）将预期评价与预期进行处理时，它们的预测能力仅等同于单独的预期或价值。然而（iii）当按照埃文斯（1991年）倡导的统计指南评估乘法复合时（即在与预期和价值相同的模型中），其纳入所解释的结果方差增加可以忽略不计，这让人对其在酒精研究中的应用产生怀疑。然而，这似乎不适用于价值，并且讨论了其在治疗中的可能作用。
