Predictions for the outcome of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays: identification of trans-species carcinogens and noncarcinogens.

Thirty chemicals or substances currently undergoing long-term carcinogenicity bioassays in rodents have been used in a project to further evaluate methods and information that may have the capability of predicting potential carcinogens. In our predictions the principal information used includes structural alerts and in vitro test results for Salmonella mutagenicity, relative subchronic toxicity, and the sites and types of pathology found in subchronic (90-day) studies. This group of chemicals differs significantly from those used previously to evaluate predictive methods in that 23 of 30 are defined as nonmutagenic by conventional criteria. The goal of this predictive effort is to identify categorically the chemicals that have the capacity to induce cancers in both rats and mice (trans-species carcinogens) and those that are not carcinogenic in either rats or mice. Chemicals that show properties that may be associated with tumor induction in either species, i.e., species-specific cancers, are categorized as being of "uncertain predictability." This category includes chemicals believed to have limited carcinogenic potential that is manifested principally as a consequence of the genetic background of the test strain of inbred rodent.