Prediction of the outcome of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays currently being conducted on 44 chemicals by the National Toxicology Program.

This paper was written to enable evaluation of the concept that knowledge about chemical structure combined with limited short-term genotoxicity and toxicity test results can be used to predict potential carcinogens. Previous attempts have been potentially biased by prior knowledge about the tumorigenicity of chemicals in animals or humans, but the 44 chemicals that are currently being bioassayed for carcinogenicity by the National Toxicology Program provide an opportunity prospectively to evaluate factors that may be predictive of chemical carcinogenicity. Predictions of rodent carcinogenicity for these 44 agents are presented as an example of what we believe is the best available approach at this time. This publication will also enable others to make their own predictions (using whatever methods they believe to have high predictive value) before the results of the animal assays are known.