吸烟者了解吸烟对死亡率的影响吗？来自健康与退休调查的证据。
Do smokers understand the mortality effects of smoking? Evidence from the Health and Retirement Survey.
作者信息
Schoenbaum M
机构信息
School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley 94720-7360, USA.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 1997 May;87(5):755-9. doi: 10.2105/ajph.87.5.755.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study examined whether smokers recognize that smoking is likely to shorten their lives and, if so, whether they understand the magnitude of this effect.
METHODS
People's expectations about their chances of reaching age 75 were compared with epidemiological predictions from life tables for never, former, current light, and current heavy smokers. Data on expectations of reaching age 75 came from the Health and Retirement Survey, a national probability sample of adults aged 50 through 62 years. Predictions came from smoking-specific life tables constituted from the 1986 National Mortality Followback Survey and the 1985 and 1987 National Health Interview Surveys.
RESULTS
Among men and women, the survival expectations of never, former, and current light smokers were close to actual predictions. However, among current heavy smokers, expectations of reaching age 75 were nearly twice as high as actuarial predictions.
CONCLUSIONS
These findings suggest that at least heavy smokers significantly underestimate their risk of premature mortality.
摘要
目的
本研究调查吸烟者是否认识到吸烟可能会缩短他们的寿命，如果认识到了，他们是否理解这种影响的程度。
方法
将人们对自己活到75岁几率的期望与从不吸烟、曾经吸烟、当前轻度吸烟和当前重度吸烟者生命表的流行病学预测进行比较。关于活到75岁期望的数据来自健康与退休调查，这是一个对50至62岁成年人的全国概率样本。预测来自根据1986年全国死亡率追踪调查以及1985年和1987年全国健康访谈调查构建的特定吸烟群体生命表。
结果
在男性和女性中，从不吸烟、曾经吸烟和当前轻度吸烟者的生存期望接近实际预测。然而，在当前重度吸烟者中，活到75岁的期望几乎是精算预测的两倍。
结论
这些发现表明，至少重度吸烟者显著低估了他们过早死亡的风险。
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