Mannelli A, Sotgia S, Patta C, Sarria A, Madrau P, Sanna L, Firinu A, Laddomada A
Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Sardegna, Sassari, Italy.
Prev Vet Med. 1997 Oct;32(3-4):235-41. doi: 10.1016/s0167-5877(97)00026-3.
Multiple logistic regression was used on serological data collected in the context of the Sardinian African swine fever (ASF) eradication program from pig farms in the province of Nuoro, Sardinia. The monthly percentage of ASFV-positive herds decreased significantly from October 1994 through March 1996 (P < 0.001). The farm-level risk of seropositivity to African swine fever virus (ASFV) was higher in free-range farms than in partial-confinement farms (odds ratios (OR) varied between 4.9 in October 1994, and 5.7 in March 1996, P < 0.001). The risk of infection for total-confinement farms was one-fifth of the risk for partial-confinement farms in October 1994 (OR = 0.2, P < 0.001), whereas in March 1996, the estimated OR was 0.57 and not significant (upper confidence limit = 1.1). The maintenance of ASFV in Sardinia was primarily associated with free-range pig farms. The natural logarithm of the number of pigs tested per visit in a farm was positively associated with the risk of herd seropositivity (OR = 2.6, P < 0.001).
对在撒丁岛努奥罗省的养猪场开展的撒丁岛非洲猪瘟(ASF)根除计划中收集的血清学数据进行了多元逻辑回归分析。1994年10月至1996年3月期间,ASF病毒阳性猪群的月度百分比显著下降(P < 0.001)。散养猪场中猪群对非洲猪瘟病毒(ASFV)血清学阳性的农场层面风险高于部分圈养猪场(优势比(OR)在1994年10月为4.9,1996年3月为5.7,P < 0.001)。1994年10月,全封闭猪场的感染风险是部分圈养猪场的五分之一(OR = 0.2,P < 0.001),而在1996年3月,估计的OR为0.57,无统计学意义(置信上限 = 1.1)。撒丁岛ASFV的持续存在主要与散养猪场有关。猪场每次检测猪的数量的自然对数与猪群血清学阳性风险呈正相关(OR = 2.6,P < 0.001)。