Nielsen Søren Saxmose, Alvarez Julio, Bicout Dominique, Calistri Paolo, Depner Klaus, Drewe Julian Ashley, Garin-Bastuji Bruno, Gonzales Rojas Jose Luis, Michel Virginie, Miranda Miguel Angel, Roberts Helen, Sihvonen Liisa, Spoolder Hans, Ståhl Karl, Viltrop Arvo, Winckler Christoph, Boklund Anette, Bøtner Anette, Gonzales Rojas Jose Luis, More Simon J, Thulke Hans-Hermann, Antoniou Sotiria-Eleni, Cortinas Abrahantes José, Dhollander Sofie, Gogin Andrey, Papanikolaou Alexandra, Gonzalez Villeta Laura C, Gortázar Schmidt Christian
EFSA J. 2019 Nov 5;17(11):e05861. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5861. eCollection 2019 Nov.
The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) - Croatia, Greece and Slovenia - were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF-free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%). This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low (from 0% to 15%). This estimate was based on the comparison of the indicators present in the ROC and the already affected countries in south-eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where there was no evidence of ASF spread to other EU MS within one year.
欧盟委员会要求欧洲食品安全局（EFSA）评估非洲猪瘟（ASF）的传播风险，并确定在欧洲东南部国家（关注区域，ROC），即阿尔巴尼亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、克罗地亚、希腊、科索沃、黑山、北马其顿、塞尔维亚和斯洛文尼亚引入非洲猪瘟后，其传播的潜在风险因素（指标）。由于地理位置和无非洲猪瘟状态，三个欧盟成员国（克罗地亚、希腊和斯洛文尼亚）被纳入关注区域。根据收集到的每个国家潜在风险因素（指标）的信息以及现行的相关欧盟法规，评估得出非洲猪瘟在引入关注区域后一年内，在该区域内传播的估计概率非常高（从66%到100%）。这一估计是在考虑到关注区域内大多数国家存在大量指标以及这些指标对非洲猪瘟传播可能产生的已知影响后确定的，特别是那些与国内养猪业结构、野猪存在情况和社会因素有关的指标。关注区域内各国的指标存在情况各不相同。每个国家在引入非洲猪瘟后都有传播风险；然而，一些国家在引入后非洲猪瘟传播的概率可能更高。此外，估计在关注区域引入非洲猪瘟后一年内，非洲猪瘟从关注区域传播到区域外欧盟成员国的概率非常低到低（从0%到15%）。这一估计是基于对关注区域和东南欧已受影响国家（如保加利亚和罗马尼亚）现有指标的比较，在这些国家，没有证据表明非洲猪瘟在一年内传播到其他欧盟成员国。
