Rhodes C J, Atkinson R P, Anderson R M, Macdonald D W
Wellcome Trust Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, Oxford, UK.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1998 Jun 29;353(1371):999-1010. doi: 10.1098/rstb.1998.0263.
Using detailed field study observations of the side-striped jackal (Canis adustus) and a simple stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of the virus and host demography, we discuss the epidemiology of rabies virus infection in the jackal population of Zimbabwe. Of the two jackal species in Zimbabwe, the other being the black-backed jackal (Canis mesomelas), the bulk of notified rabies cases are in side-striped jackals. Specifically, we show that the side-striped jackal population itself does not seem able to support rabies infection endemically, i.e. without frequent reintroduction from outside sources of infection. We argue that this is probably because the overall average jackal population density is too low to maintain the chain of infection. This study suggests that the disease is regularly introduced to jackals by rabid dogs from populations associated with human settlements. Given the rapidly rising dog population in Zimbabwe, estimates are derived of the future incidence of jackal rabies based on different dog-vaccination scenarios.
通过对侧纹胡狼（Canis adustus）进行详细的野外研究观察，并运用病毒传播动力学和宿主种群统计学的简单随机模型，我们探讨了津巴布韦胡狼种群中狂犬病病毒感染的流行病学情况。在津巴布韦的两种胡狼中，另一种是黑背胡狼（Canis mesomelas），大部分报告的狂犬病病例都发生在侧纹胡狼身上。具体而言，我们发现侧纹胡狼种群自身似乎无法维持狂犬病的地方性感染，即没有外部感染源的频繁重新引入就无法维持。我们认为这可能是因为胡狼的总体平均种群密度过低，无法维持感染链。这项研究表明，这种疾病是由与人类住区相关的狂犬病狗群定期传播给胡狼的。鉴于津巴布韦犬只数量迅速增加，我们根据不同的犬只疫苗接种情况，对未来胡狼狂犬病的发病率进行了估计。
