Milinski M, Wedekind C
Abteilung Verhaltensökologie, Zoologisches Institut, Universität Bern, CH-3032 Hinterkappelen, Switzerland.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1998 Nov 10;95(23):13755-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.95.23.13755.
Many problems in human society reflect the inability of selfish parties to cooperate. The "Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma" has been used widely as a model for the evolution of cooperation in societies. Axelrod's computer tournaments and the extensive simulations of evolution by Nowak and Sigmund and others have shown that natural selection can favor cooperative strategies in the Prisoner's Dilemma. Rigorous empirical tests, however, lag behind the progress made by theorists. Clear predictions differ depending on the players' capacity to remember previous rounds of the game. To test whether humans use the kind of cooperative strategies predicted, we asked students to play the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game either continuously or interrupted after each round by a secondary memory task (i.e., playing the game "Memory") that constrained the students' working-memory capacity. When playing without interruption, most students used "Pavlovian" strategies, as predicted, for greater memory capacity, and the rest used "generous tit-for-tat" strategies. The proportion of generous tit-for-tat strategies increased when games of Memory interfered with the subjects' working memory, as predicted. Students who continued to use complex Pavlovian strategies were less successful in the Memory game, but more successful in the Prisoner's Dilemma, which indicates a trade-off in memory capacity for the two tasks. Our results suggest that the set of strategies predicted by game theorists approximates human reality.
人类社会中的许多问题反映出自私各方无法进行合作。“重复囚徒困境”已被广泛用作社会合作演化的模型。阿克塞尔罗德的计算机竞赛以及诺瓦克、西格蒙德等人对演化的广泛模拟表明,自然选择在囚徒困境中可能青睐合作策略。然而,严格的实证检验落后于理论家所取得的进展。明确的预测因参与者记住游戏前几轮的能力而异。为了测试人类是否使用预测的那种合作策略,我们让学生玩重复囚徒困境游戏,要么连续玩,要么在每轮之后通过一项次要记忆任务(即玩“记忆”游戏)中断,该任务限制了学生的工作记忆容量。在不间断玩游戏时,如预测的那样,大多数学生出于更大的记忆容量使用了“巴甫洛夫式”策略,其余学生使用了“慷慨以牙还牙”策略。正如预测的那样,当记忆游戏干扰受试者的工作记忆时,慷慨以牙还牙策略的比例增加。继续使用复杂巴甫洛夫式策略的学生在记忆游戏中不太成功,但在囚徒困境中更成功,这表明这两项任务在记忆容量方面存在权衡。我们的结果表明,博弈论者预测的策略集接近人类实际情况。