Courtney H, Kirkland J, Viguerie P
McKinsey and Company, Washington, DC, USA.
Harv Bus Rev. 1997 Nov-Dec;75(6):66-79.
At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.
传统战略方法的核心假设是，通过运用一系列强大的分析工具，高管们能够足够准确地预测任何业务的未来，从而使他们能够选择明确的战略方向。但是，当环境如此不确定，以至于再多的分析也无法让我们预测未来时，会发生什么呢？在高度不确定的商业环境中，什么才是好的战略呢？作者是麦肯锡公司的顾问，他们认为不确定性需要一种新的战略思维方式。他们说，高管们常常持有二元观点：要么低估不确定性，以得出公司规划或资本预算流程所需的预测，要么高估不确定性，放弃所有分析，凭直觉行事。作者概述了一种新方法，首先要对任何公司可能面临的四个不同层次的不确定性做出关键区分。然后，他们解释了一套通用战略——塑造市场、适应市场或保留日后参与竞争的权利——如何在这四个层次中分别运用。他们还说明了这些战略如何通过三种基本行动类型的组合来实施：大赌注、期权和无悔行动。这个框架可以帮助管理者确定哪些分析工具能够为不确定性下的决策提供依据，哪些不能。在更广泛的层面上，它为高管们提供了一种严谨而系统地思考不确定性及其对战略影响的方法。
