Rea E, Laflèche J, Stalker S, Guarda B K, Shapiro H, Johnson I, Bondy S J, Upshur R, Russell M L, Eliasziw M
Toronto Public Health, and University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Epidemiol Infect. 2007 Aug;135(6):914-21. doi: 10.1017/S0950268806007771. Epub 2007 Jan 12.
We report attack rates and contact-related predictors among community contacts of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases from the 2003 Toronto-area outbreak. Community contact data was extracted from public health records for single, well-defined exposures to a SARS case. In total, 8662 community-acquired exposures resulted in 61 probable cases; a crude attack rate of 0.70% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.90]. Persons aged 55-69 years were at higher risk of acquiring SARS (1.14%) than those either younger (0.60%) or older (0.70%). In multivariable analysis exposures for at least 30 min at a distance of <or=1 m increased the likelihood of becoming a SARS case 20.4-fold (95% CI 11.8-35.1). Risk related to duration of illness in the source case at time of exposure was greatest for illness duration of 7-10 days (rate ratio 3.4, 95% CI 1.9-6.1). Longer and closer proximity exposures incurred the highest rate of disease. Separate measures of time and distance from source cases should be added to minimum datasets for the assessment of interventions for SARS and other emerging diseases.
我们报告了2003年多伦多地区严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)疫情中病例社区接触者的感染率及与接触相关的预测因素。社区接触数据从公共卫生记录中提取,这些记录针对明确的单次接触SARS病例的情况。总共8662次社区获得性接触导致61例可能病例;粗感染率为0.70%[95%置信区间(CI)0.54 - 0.90]。55 - 69岁人群感染SARS的风险(1.14%)高于年龄较小(0.60%)或较大(0.70%)的人群。在多变量分析中,在距离≤1米处接触至少30分钟会使成为SARS病例的可能性增加20.4倍(95% CI 11.8 - 35.1)。暴露时源病例的病程为7 - 10天,与之相关的风险最大(率比3.4,95% CI 1.9 - 6.1)。更长时间和更近距离的接触导致疾病发生率最高。在评估针对SARS和其他新发疾病的干预措施时,应将与源病例的时间和距离的单独测量指标添加到最小数据集。