Challen Kirsty, Bentley Andrew, Bright John, Walter Darren
University Hospital of South Manchester NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK.
Crit Care. 2007;11(2):212. doi: 10.1186/cc5732.
Worst case scenarios for pandemic influenza planning in the US involve over 700,000 patients requiring mechanical ventilation. UK planning predicts a 231% occupancy of current level 3 (intensive care unit) bed capacity. Critical care planners need to recognise that mortality is likely to be high and the risk to healthcare workers significant. Contingency planning should, therefore, be multi-faceted, involving a robust health command structure, the facility to expand critical care provision in terms of space, equipment and staff and cohorting of affected patients in the early stages. It should also be recognised that despite this expansion of critical care, demand will exceed supply and a process for triage needs to be developed that is valid, reproducible, transparent and consistent with distributive justice. We advocate the development and validation of physiological scores for use as a triage tool, coupled with candid public discussion of the process.
美国大流行性流感规划的最坏情况是,超过70万名患者需要机械通气。英国的规划预计,当前3级(重症监护病房)床位使用率将达到231%。重症监护规划人员需要认识到,死亡率可能很高,医护人员面临的风险也很大。因此,应急规划应是多方面的,包括强有力的卫生指挥结构、在空间、设备和人员方面扩大重症监护服务的能力,以及在早期阶段对受影响患者进行分组。还应认识到,尽管重症监护有所扩大,但需求仍将超过供应,因此需要制定一个有效的、可重复的、透明的且符合分配正义的分诊程序。我们主张开发并验证用作分诊工具的生理评分,并就此过程进行坦率的公众讨论。