Hoffmann Sandra, Fischbeck Paul, Krupnick Alan, McWilliams Michael
Resources for the Future, 1616 P Street N.W., Washington, DC 20036, USA.
J Food Prot. 2007 May;70(5):1220-9. doi: 10.4315/0362-028x-70.5.1220.
U.S. foodborne illness risk analysis would benefit greatly from better information on the relationship between the incidence of foodborne illness and exposure to foodborne pathogens. In this study, expert elicitation was used to attribute U.S. foodborne illnesses caused by the nine FoodNet pathogens, Toxoplasma gondii, and noroviruses to consumption of foods in 11 broad categories. Forty-two nationally recognized food safety experts responded to a formal written expert elicitation survey. For each pathogen, respondents gave their best estimate of the distribution of foodborne illnesses associated with each of the food categories and the 90% confidence bounds on each of their estimates. Based on the work of Paul Mead and his coauthors, food attribution percentage estimates from this study were used to attribute case, hospitalization, and death incidence estimates to foods according to pathogen. These attribution estimates indicate that 15 food-pathogen pairs account for 90% of the illnesses, 25 pairs account for 90% of hospitalizations, and 21 pairs account for 90% of deaths.
更好地了解食源性疾病发病率与食源性病原体暴露之间的关系，将极大地有助于美国食源性疾病风险分析。在本研究中，通过专家意见征集，将由九种食源网（FoodNet）病原体、弓形虫和诺如病毒引起的美国食源性疾病归因于11大类食品的消费。42位全国公认的食品安全专家对一项正式的书面专家意见征集调查做出了回应。对于每种病原体，受访者给出了他们对与每种食品类别相关的食源性疾病分布的最佳估计，以及每个估计值的90%置信区间。根据保罗·米德及其合著者的研究，本研究中的食物归因百分比估计值被用于根据病原体将病例、住院和死亡发病率估计值归因于食品。这些归因估计表明，15种食物-病原体组合占疾病的90%，25种组合占住院的90%，21种组合占死亡的90%。
