Coates J M, Herbert J
Department of Physiology, Development and Neuroscience, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3DY, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Apr 22;105(16):6167-72. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0704025105. Epub 2008 Apr 14.
Little is known about the role of the endocrine system in financial risk taking. Here, we report the findings of a study in which we sampled, under real working conditions, endogenous steroids from a group of male traders in the City of London. We found that a trader's morning testosterone level predicts his day's profitability. We also found that a trader's cortisol rises with both the variance of his trading results and the volatility of the market. Our results suggest that higher testosterone may contribute to economic return, whereas cortisol is increased by risk. Our results point to a further possibility: testosterone and cortisol are known to have cognitive and behavioral effects, so if the acutely elevated steroids we observed were to persist or increase as volatility rises, they may shift risk preferences and even affect a trader's ability to engage in rational choice.
关于内分泌系统在金融冒险行为中的作用，人们所知甚少。在此，我们报告一项研究的结果，在实际工作条件下，我们对一组伦敦金融城的男性交易员的内源性类固醇进行了采样。我们发现，交易员早晨的睾酮水平能预测其当日的盈利能力。我们还发现，交易员的皮质醇水平会随着其交易结果的方差和市场波动而上升。我们的结果表明，较高的睾酮水平可能有助于获得经济回报，而皮质醇会因风险而增加。我们的结果还指向了另一种可能性：众所周知，睾酮和皮质醇具有认知和行为效应，因此，如果我们观察到的类固醇水平急剧升高随着波动性增加而持续或上升，它们可能会改变风险偏好，甚至影响交易员进行理性选择的能力。
