Polgreen Philip M, Bohnett Lucas C, Cavanaugh Joseph E, Gingerich Stefan B, Desjardin Lucy E, Harris Meghan L, Quinlisk M Patricia, Pentella Michael A
Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA.
Clin Infect Dis. 2008 May 1;46(9):1447-9. doi: 10.1086/587104.
To determine how long people shed virus after the onset of mumps, we used logistic regression modeling to analyze data from the 2006 outbreak of mumps in Iowa. Our model establishes that the probability of mumps virus shedding decreases rapidly after the onset of symptoms. However, we estimate that 8%-15% of patients will still be shedding the virus 5 days after the onset of symptoms and, thus, may still be contagious during this period.
为了确定人们在腮腺炎发病后多长时间内会排出病毒，我们使用逻辑回归模型分析了来自2006年爱荷华州腮腺炎疫情的数据。我们的模型表明，腮腺炎病毒排出的概率在症状出现后迅速下降。然而，我们估计8%-15%的患者在症状出现5天后仍会排出病毒，因此在此期间仍可能具有传染性。
