Husain Tahir, Chaudhary Junaid Rafi
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, NL, Canada.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2008 Dec;5(4):204-12. doi: 10.3390/ijerph5040204.
Accelerated global warming is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The climate changes are anticipated to have a long-term impact on human health, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources and vegetation. Due to rising sea levels, low lying coastal regions will be flooded, farmlands will be threatened and scarcity of fresh water resources will be aggravated. This will in turn cause increased human suffering in different parts of the world. Spread of disease vectors will contribute towards high mortality, along with the heat related deaths. Arid and hot climatic regions will face devastating effects risking survival of the fragile plant species, wild animals, and other desert ecosystems. The paper presents future changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity and their direct and indirect potential impacts on human health in the coastal regions of the Gulf countries including Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. The analysis is based on the long-term changes in the values of temperature, precipitation and humidity as predicted by the global climatic simulation models under different scenarios of GHG emission levels. Monthly data on temperature, precipitation, and humidity were retrieved from IPCC databases for longitude 41.25 degrees E to 61.875 degrees E and latitude 9.278 degrees N to 27.833 degrees N. Using an average of 1970 to 2000 values as baseline, the changes in the humidity, temperature and precipitation were predicted for the period 2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2099. Based on epidemiological studies on various diseases associated with the change in temperature, humidity and precipitation in arid and hot regions, empirical models were developed to assess human health risk in the Gulf region to predict elevated levels of diseases and mortality rates under different emission scenarios as developed by the IPCC.The preliminary assessment indicates increased mortality rates due to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, thermal stress, and increased frequency of infectious vector borne diseases in the region between 2070 and 2099.
政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）预测，由于人为温室气体排放增加，全球变暖将加速。预计气候变化将对人类健康、海洋和陆地生态系统、水资源和植被产生长期影响。由于海平面上升，地势低洼的沿海地区将被淹没，农田将受到威胁，淡水资源短缺将加剧。这反过来又会在世界不同地区造成更多人类苦难。疾病媒介的传播将导致高死亡率，以及与高温相关的死亡。干旱炎热的气候区域将面临毁灭性影响，脆弱的植物物种、野生动物和其他沙漠生态系统的生存将受到威胁。本文介绍了包括也门、阿曼、阿拉伯联合酋长国、卡塔尔和巴林在内的海湾国家沿海地区未来温度、降水和湿度的变化及其对人类健康的直接和间接潜在影响。该分析基于全球气候模拟模型在不同温室气体排放水平情景下预测的温度、降水和湿度值的长期变化。从IPCC数据库中获取了东经41.25度至61.875度、北纬9.278度至27.833度的温度、降水和湿度月度数据。以1970年至2000年的平均值为基线，预测了2020年至2050年以及2070年至2099年期间湿度、温度和降水的变化。基于对干旱炎热地区温度、湿度和降水变化相关各种疾病的流行病学研究，开发了经验模型，以评估海湾地区的人类健康风险，预测IPCC制定的不同排放情景下疾病水平和死亡率的上升情况。初步评估表明，2070年至2099年期间该地区因心血管和呼吸系统疾病、热应激以及传染性媒介传播疾病频率增加导致死亡率上升。
