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一种具有抗逆转录病毒治疗的双毒株艾滋病毒/艾滋病模型的数学分析。

Mathematical analysis of a two strain HIV/AIDS model with antiretroviral treatment.

作者信息

Bhunu C P, Garira W, Magombedze G

机构信息

Department of Applied Mathematics, Modelling Biomedical Systems Research Group, National University of Science and Technology, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.

出版信息

Acta Biotheor. 2009 Sep;57(3):361-81. doi: 10.1007/s10441-009-9080-2. Epub 2009 Apr 9.

Abstract

A two strain HIV/AIDS model with treatment which allows AIDS patients with sensitive HIV-strain to undergo amelioration is presented as a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the associated epidemic threshold known as the basic reproduction number for the model is less than unity. The centre manifold theory is used to show that the sensitive HIV-strain only and resistant HIV-strain only endemic equilibria are locally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction numbers are greater than unity. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity, boundedness and persistence of solutions are presented. The model is numerically analysed to assess the effects of treatment with amelioration on the dynamics of a two strain HIV/AIDS model. Numerical simulations of the model show that the two strains co-exist whenever the reproduction numbers exceed unity. Further, treatment with amelioration may result in an increase in the total number of infective individuals (asymptomatic) but results in a decrease in the number of AIDS patients. Further, analysis of the reproduction numbers show that antiretroviral resistance increases with increase in antiretroviral use.

摘要

提出了一个带有治疗的双毒株HIV/AIDS模型,该模型允许感染敏感HIV毒株的艾滋病患者病情改善,它被表示为一个非线性常微分方程组。当模型的相关流行阈值(即基本再生数)小于1时,无病平衡点被证明是全局渐近稳定的。利用中心流形理论表明,当相关再生数大于1时,仅敏感HIV毒株和仅耐药HIV毒株的地方病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的。给出了模型的定性分析,包括解的正性、有界性和持续性。对该模型进行了数值分析,以评估改善治疗对双毒株HIV/AIDS模型动态的影响。模型的数值模拟表明,只要再生数超过1,两种毒株就会共存。此外,改善治疗可能会导致感染个体(无症状)总数增加,但会导致艾滋病患者数量减少。此外,对再生数的分析表明,抗逆转录病毒耐药性会随着抗逆转录病毒药物使用的增加而增加。

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