Morley C J, Thornton A J, Cole T J, Hewson P H, Fowler M A
Department of Paediatrics, University of Cambridge.
Arch Dis Child. 1991 Jan;66(1):100-5. doi: 10.1136/adc.66.1.100.
A scoring system has been developed to grade the severity of acute systemic illness in babies under 6 months of age. Data were collected on 28 symptoms and 47 signs from 1007 babies with a spectrum of illness ranging from well to seriously ill. Ordinal regression analysis identified 19 symptoms and signs which in combination graded the severity of the illness most accurately. The coefficients were converted to scores. The higher the score the more serious the illness. When applied to a theoretical cohort of 10,000 babies at home, a score less than 8 has a specificity of 98%, and a score of 13 or more a sensitivity of 92%. The positive predictive value for serious illness increases from zero at a score of zero to approaching 100% at scores over 30. The scoring system has been developed into score cards for parents and professionals.
已开发出一种评分系统，用于对6个月以下婴儿急性全身性疾病的严重程度进行分级。收集了1007名患有从健康到重病等一系列疾病的婴儿的28种症状和47种体征的数据。有序回归分析确定了19种症状和体征，这些症状和体征相结合能最准确地对疾病严重程度进行分级。系数被转换为分数。分数越高，疾病越严重。当应用于理论上的10000名在家的婴儿队列时，得分低于8分的特异性为98%，得分13分或更高的敏感性为92%。重病的阳性预测值从零分的零增加到超过30分的接近100%。该评分系统已被开发成供家长和专业人员使用的记分卡。
