National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Feb 23;107(8):3382-7. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0906548107. Epub 2010 Feb 3.
A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing.
一份常被引用的柱状图由政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）提供，展示了个别化学物质对气候的影响，以瓦特/平方米/秒来表示辐射强迫。图表的组织反映了大气化学的历史，在这一历史中，研究人员通常专注于一种感兴趣的单一物质。然而，污染物排放和浓度的变化是人为气候变化主要驱动因素的结果，而不是原因：人类活动。在本文中，我们建议根据变化的驱动因素——即经济部门来组织柱状图。考虑了对流层臭氧、细颗粒物、气溶胶-云相互作用、甲烷和长寿命温室气体的气候影响。我们量化了按部门计算的由于 2000 年持续排放而导致的未来总辐射强迫的演变，这对当前气候政策的发展最相关，并关注两个特定的时间点，即近期的 2020 年和长期的 2100 年。由于部门情况差异很大，这种方法促进了智能气候政策的发展，并且有助于确定人为辐射强迫快速缓解的有效机会。
