Katalinic Alexander, Peters Elke, Beske Fritz, Pritzkuleit Ron
Institute for Cancer Epidemiology, University of Lübeck, Germany.
Transfus Med Hemother. 2010 Jun;37(3):155-159. doi: 10.1159/000313993. Epub 2010 May 20.
The German population will decrease by 16% until 2050, and the ratio of young to old people is shifting towards the elderly. Because risk of disease rises with age, an aging society will be confronted with a higher burden of diseases. METHODS: A projection of status quo case numbers and crude rates of selected diseases was done for the years 2030 and 2050. Actual sex- and age-specific rates were transferred to the predicted population figures (11th coordinated population prediction). RESULTS: Cancer incidence will rise from 461,000 (2007) to 588,000 cases (2050) (+27%). Crude incidence rate will increase by 52%. Number of femoral neck fractures will rise by 88% (rate +122%). For other diseases incidence and prevalence will increase up to 144%. CONCLUSION: Blood (products) will be necessary for the therapy of many of the presented diseases. Therefore, it can be assumed that future demand of blood will rise in a similar manner as the rising number of diseases. The projected developments describe an extraordinary challenge for the German health care system and in particular for transfusion medicine. It is necessary to develop new concepts to meet this future demands and to ensure a high-performance health care system.
到2050年德国人口将减少16%，且年轻人与老年人的比例正朝着老龄化转变。由于疾病风险随年龄增长而上升，老龄化社会将面临更高的疾病负担。方法：对2030年和2050年选定疾病的现状病例数和粗发病率进行了预测。将实际的性别和年龄特异性发病率应用于预测的人口数据（第11次协调人口预测）。结果：癌症发病率将从46.1万例（2007年）增至58.8万例（2050年）（增长27%）。粗发病率将增加52%。股骨颈骨折数量将增加88%（发病率增加122%）。对于其他疾病，发病率和患病率将增加高达144%。结论：对于许多上述疾病的治疗而言血液（制品）将是必要的。因此，可以假定未来血液需求将以与疾病数量上升类似的方式增加。预测的发展态势给德国医疗保健系统，尤其是输血医学带来了巨大挑战。有必要制定新的理念以满足未来需求并确保高效的医疗保健系统。
