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[应对不确定性的能力:从2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行中汲取的教训]

[Competence in dealing with uncertainty: lessons to learn from the influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009].

作者信息

Feufel M A, Antes G, Gigerenzer G

机构信息

Harding Zentrum für Risikokompetenz und Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Lentzeallee 94, 14195, Berlin, Deutschland.

出版信息

Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz. 2010 Dec;53(12):1283-9. doi: 10.1007/s00103-010-1165-1.

Abstract

The influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 showed that many decision and policy makers do not trust citizens to effectively cope with uncertainty. We discuss three fundamental problems with the information management at the time: (1) knowledge of available and missing evidence was not communicated transparently and completely, (2) rather than informing citizens, officials often treated them paternalistically, and (3) public trust in vaccinations and institutions was damaged as a result of (1) and (2). We suggest the following measures to policy and decision makers in order to avoid similar problems in the future: transparent description of the situation instead of buzzwords such as "pandemic;" transparent communication of existing and missing evidence instead of dramatic estimates of death rates; disclosure of political decision processes and conflicts of interest.

摘要

2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行表明,许多决策者不信任公民有能力有效应对不确定性。我们讨论了当时信息管理存在的三个基本问题:(1)关于现有证据和缺失证据的信息没有得到透明和完整的传达;(2)官员们常常采取家长式作风对待公民,而不是向他们提供信息;(3)由于(1)和(2),公众对疫苗接种和机构的信任受到了损害。为避免未来出现类似问题,我们向政策制定者和决策者提出以下措施:对情况进行透明描述,而不是使用“大流行”等流行语;对现有证据和缺失证据进行透明沟通,而不是对死亡率进行夸张估计;披露政治决策过程和利益冲突。

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