Alcohol Research Group, Emeryville, CA 94608, USA.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2011 Sep;30(5):473-80. doi: 10.1111/j.1465-3362.2011.00306.x.
introduction and aims: The relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and suicide rates has been found to vary in significance and magnitude across countries. This study utilises a panel of time-series measures from the US states to estimate the effects of changes in current and lagged alcohol sales on suicide mortality risk.
Generalised least squares estimation utilised 53 years of data from 48 US states or state groups to estimate relationships between total and beverage-specific alcohol consumption measures and age-standardised suicide mortality rates in first-differenced semi-logged models.
An additional litre of ethanol from total alcohol sales was estimated to increase suicide rates by 2.3% in models utilising a distributed lag specification while no effect was found in models including only current alcohol consumption. A similar result is found for men, while for women both current and distributed lag measures were found to be significantly related to suicide rates with an effect of approximately 3.2% per litre from current and 5.8% per litre from the lagged measure. Beverage-specific models indicate that spirits is most closely linked with suicide risk for women while beer and wine are for men. Unemployment rates are consistently positively related to suicide rates. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS" Results suggest that chronic effects, potentially related to alcohol abuse and dependence, are the main source of alcohol's impact on suicide rates in the USA for men and are responsible for about half of the effect for women.
引言和目的：人均酒精消费量与自杀率之间的关系在不同国家的重要性和程度上存在差异。本研究利用美国各州的时间序列数据，估计当前和滞后的酒精销售变化对自杀死亡率风险的影响。
广义最小二乘法估计利用来自 48 个美国州或州组的 53 年数据，在差分半对数模型中估计总酒精消费和饮料特定酒精消费措施与年龄标准化自杀死亡率之间的关系。
在使用分布式滞后规范的模型中，估计从总酒精销售中增加 1 升乙醇会使自杀率增加 2.3%，而在仅包括当前酒精消费的模型中则没有发现影响。这一结果在男性模型中也适用，而对于女性，当前和分布式滞后措施都与自杀率显著相关，当前措施每升增加 3.2%，滞后措施每升增加 5.8%。饮料特定模型表明，烈酒与女性自杀风险最密切相关，而啤酒和葡萄酒则与男性相关。失业率与自杀率呈正相关。
结果表明，慢性效应，可能与酒精滥用和依赖有关，是酒精对美国男性自杀率影响的主要来源，占女性影响的一半左右。
