Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2012 Feb;86(2):349-58. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0432.
Yellow fever virus (YFV), a mosquito-borne virus endemic to tropical Africa and South America, is capable of causing large urban outbreaks of human disease. With the ease of international travel, urban outbreaks could lead to the rapid spread and subsequent transmission of YFV in distant locations. We designed a stochastic metapopulation model with spatiotemporally explicit transmissibility scenarios to simulate the global spread of YFV from a single urban outbreak by infected airline travelers. In simulations of a 2008 outbreak in Asunción, Paraguay, local outbreaks occurred in 12.8% of simulations and international spread in 2.0%. Using simple probabilistic models, we found that local incidence, travel rates, and basic transmission parameters are sufficient to assess the probability of introduction and autochthonous transmission events. These models could be used to assess the risk of YFV spread during an urban outbreak and identify locations at risk for YFV introduction and subsequent autochthonous transmission.
黄热病病毒（YFV）是一种流行于热带非洲和南美洲的蚊媒病毒，能够引起人类疾病的大规模城市暴发。随着国际旅行的便利，城市暴发可能导致 YFV 在遥远地点的迅速传播和随后的传播。我们设计了一个具有时空明确传播情景的随机化复合种群模型，以模拟由受感染的航空旅行者引起的 YFV 从单个城市暴发的全球传播。在对 2008 年巴拉圭亚松森暴发的模拟中，12.8%的模拟发生了局部暴发，2.0%发生了国际传播。使用简单的概率模型，我们发现局部发病率、旅行率和基本传播参数足以评估输入和本地传播事件的概率。这些模型可用于评估城市暴发期间 YFV 传播的风险，并确定存在 YFV 输入和随后本地传播风险的地点。
