2016年12月至2017年5月巴西持续爆发黄热病期间的国际传播风险。
International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017.
作者信息
Dorigatti Ilaria, Hamlet Arran, Aguas Ricardo, Cattarino Lorenzo, Cori Anne, Donnelly Christl A, Garske Tini, Imai Natsuko, Ferguson Neil M
机构信息
MRC Centre for Outbreak analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
出版信息
Euro Surveill. 2017 Jul 13;22(28). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.28.30572.
States in south-eastern Brazil were recently affected by the largest Yellow Fever (YF) outbreak seen in a decade in Latin America. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the risk of travel-related international spread of YF indicating that the United States, Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, Italy and Germany may have received at least one travel-related YF case capable of seeding local transmission. Mitigating the risk of imported YF cases seeding local transmission requires heightened surveillance globally.
巴西东南部各州最近受到拉丁美洲十年来最大规模的黄热病疫情影响。在此，我们对黄热病与旅行相关的国际传播风险进行了定量评估，结果表明美国、阿根廷、乌拉圭、西班牙、意大利和德国可能至少接收了一例与旅行相关的能够引发本地传播的黄热病病例。降低输入性黄热病病例引发本地传播的风险需要全球加强监测。
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