Department of Psychology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V51 1S6, Canada.
Law Hum Behav. 2012 Oct;36(5):423-38. doi: 10.1037/h0093938. Epub 2012 Feb 20.
Several risk assessment tools, including the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (Prentky & Righthand, 2003), the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (Worling & Curwen, 2001), the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (Epperson, Ralston, Fowers, DeWitt, & Gore, 2006), and the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999), have been used to assess reoffense risk among adolescents who have committed sexual offenses. Given that research on these tools has yielded somewhat mixed results, we empirically synthesized 33 published and unpublished studies involving 6,196 male adolescents who had committed a sexual offense. We conducted two separate meta-analyses, first with correlations and then with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs). Total scores on each of the tools significantly predicted sexual reoffending, with aggregated correlations ranging from .12 to .20 and aggregated AUC scores ranging from .64 to .67. However, in many cases heterogeneity across studies was moderate to high. There were no significant differences between tools, and although the Static-99 was developed for adults, it achieved similar results as the adolescent tools. Results are compared to other meta-analyses of risk tools used in the area of violence risk assessment and in other fields.
已经有一些风险评估工具被用于评估有过性犯罪行为的青少年再犯风险，例如《青少年性犯罪者评估协议- II》（Prentky & Righthand，2003）、《青少年性犯罪再犯风险估计》（Worling & Curwen，2001）、《青少年性犯罪再犯风险评估工具- II》（Epperson，Ralston，Fowers，DeWitt，& Gore，2006）和《静态-99》（Hanson & Thornton，1999）。鉴于这些工具的研究结果有些混杂，我们对涉及 6196 名有过性犯罪行为的男性青少年的 33 项已发表和未发表的研究进行了实证综合分析。我们进行了两项单独的元分析，首先是相关分析，然后是接收者操作特征曲线下的面积（AUC）分析。每个工具的总分都显著预测了性再犯，聚合相关系数范围从.12 到.20，聚合 AUC 得分范围从.64 到.67。然而，在许多情况下，研究之间的异质性是中等至高度的。不同工具之间没有显著差异，尽管《静态-99》是为成年人开发的，但它与青少年工具的结果相似。将结果与在暴力风险评估领域和其他领域使用的风险工具的其他元分析进行了比较。
